[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081202
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 32.5N 79.8W at 08/1200 UTC or
about 17 nm south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina moving
northeast at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 962
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 95 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection covers the the
area north of 31N west of 77W to inland over Georgia and the
Carolinas. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.

Hurricane Nicole is centered near 25.9N 65.6W at 08/0900 UTC or
about 382 nm south of Bermuda and about 450 nm north of San
Juan, Puerto Rico moving south at 6 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Convection is well removed from the low
level center due to northerly shear. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 60/75 nm of a line from
24N62W to 23N68W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic is along 34W from 6N-
14N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a weak 700 mb trough north of 10N and is embedded
within a surge of moisture. Small clusters of isolated moderate
convection are from 9N-13N between 30W-36W.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
8N51W to 16N48W moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough and is embedded within an
area of moisture. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection are from 9N-14N between 45W-51W.

Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends along 66W/67W from over
Puerto Rico to the coast of Venezuela moving west near 15 kt
over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough and
remains embedded within a broad area of moisture. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 15N-17N between
66W-68W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W to 8N19W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 5N22W 8N27W to 7N30W. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are from 6N-10N between
12W-17W and from 5N-12N between 20W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper trough moving across the Mississippi Valley is
supporting a cold front that enters the Gulf over southwest
Louisiana near Lake Charles along 29N95W then over Texas near
Corpus Christi. Otherwise benign upper features dominate the
Gulf waters this monring with dry air, strong subsidence, and
clear skies covering the Gulf north of 25N. Isolated showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms dot the area south of 25N. Fresh
to strong north to northwest over the northeast Gulf will
diminish this morning as Hurricane Matthew moves away from the
area. The front will sweep southeast over the northwest and
central Gulf today reaching from south Florida to the east Bay
of Campeche Sunday. Strong northerly winds are expected in the
southwest Gulf near Veracruz tonight through Sunday night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper low dominates the Caribbean this morning centered near
16N80W and is generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from 15N-21N between 80W-86W. The monsoon trough
extends from Colombia near 9N76W then over Panama generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 13N to
over Colombia between 74W-76W and south of 13N west of 80W to
the coast of Panama to south Nicaragua. Isolated showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms dot the east Caribbean east of
70W to over the Lesser Antilles. The tropical wave will move
south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola into the central Caribbean
through Sunday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Skies remain clear across the island this morning. The tropical
wave will move south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through
Sunday. Mostly fair weather with possible evening showers will
continue through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The primary concern again this morning continues to be Hurricane
Matthew moving along the coast of of South and North Carolina. A
secondary concern is Tropical Storm Nicole between Bermuda and
Puerto Rico. See Special Features above. Lingering moisture is
generating isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
within 90 nm of a line from 24N80W along 28N77W to 31N77W. The
remainder of the Atlantic east of 60W is dominated by a surface
ridge with a weak 1020 mb high near 29N23W. Matthew is expected
turn to the northeast this afternoon. On this track, the center
of Matthew will continue to move near or over the coast of South
Carolina this morning, and near the coast of southern North
Carolina by tonight.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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