[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
206 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 33.0N 79.4W at 08/1500 UTC or
about 48 nm S-SW of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina and about 87 nm SW
of Cape Fear North Carolina, moving northeast at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 967 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Heavy showers are in the NE quadrant
of Matthew within 90 nm of its center. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere from 32N to 40N between 74W and 83W,
including the Carolinas and Virginia. The center of Matthew will
continue to move near or over the coast of South Carolina today,
and be near the coast of southern North Carolina by tonight. Hurricane
and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the
warning area in Georgia and South Carolina this afternoon, and
spread northward elsewhere within the warning area through
tonight. The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
8 to 12 inches near and east of Interstate 95 in South Carolina and
North Carolina, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches. Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the east coast of Florida during the next few days, and will
spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast through the
weekend. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.

Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 25.2N 65.7W at 08/1500 UTC
or about 430 nm south of Bermuda and about 408 nm north of San
Juan, Puerto Rico moving south at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. A cluster of heavy showers and tstms is from 23N
to 25N between 63.5W and 66.5W. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere in the SE semicircle within 300 nm of Nicole's center.
See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 06N to
15N with axis near 36W moving W at 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of unfavorable deep layer wind shear and
dry air is in the N-NW wave environment according to CIRA LPW
imagery from the surface to 850 mb. These factors are limiting the
convection to scattered showers from 09N to 14N between 29W and
38W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 08N to
17N with axis near 50W moving W at 20 kt over the past 24 hours. The
wave is in a region of unfavorable deep layer wind shear and dry
air is in the N-NW wave environment according to CIRA LPW imagery
from the surface to 850 mb as well as water vapor imagery.
However, abundant shallow moisture in the remainder wave
environment along with a diffluent flow in both the middle and
upper levels support scattered heavy showers from 09N to 14N
between 47W and 53W.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean extending from 11N to 19N with
axis near 68W moving W at 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave
is in a region of favorable to neutral deep layer wind shear. Low
level moisture and middle level diffluent flow support scattered
showers from 13N to 16N between 66W and 71W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 12N17W to 8N25W where the ITCZ begins and continues
along 9N35W, then resume near 9N38W to 9N48W and then from 10N53W
to 9N61W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is from 3N to 11N E of 15W
and from 07N to 11N between 53W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NW to W flow prevails in the E basin E of 86W
associated with the broad wind field of Hurricane Matthew moving
along the Carolinas coastline this afternoon. To the east, an
upper level trough extending from the Great Lakes S to a base over
the north- central Gulf supports a cold front from the Florida
Panhandle near 30N87W to 27N92W to 24N97W. Scatterometer and
surface data show fresh NE flow behind this frontal boundary that
is expected to extend from the S Florida Peninsula to the Bay of
Campeche by Sunday near sunrise. Water vapor imagery show strong
dry air subsidence across the basin. Shallow moisture support
isolated showers across the west-central Gulf ahead of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Nicole is N of Puerto Rico in the SW N Atlantic.
The rainbands of Nicole extend to the north-central and NE
Caribbean, thus supporting scattered to isolated showers over
Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic. A tropical wave is entering
central Caribbean waters where favorable to neutral deep layer
wind shear, low level moisture and middle level diffluent flow
support scattered showers from 13N to 16N between 66W and 71W. In
the SW basin, low level moisture convergence and divergence aloft
support scattered heavy showers within 120 nm off the coast of
Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Otherwise, a surface trough is
in the NW basin from 21N84W to 15N85W with isolated showers
within 180 nm either side of its axis. Gentle to moderate trades
dominate across Caribbean waters. A new tropical wave is expected
to enter the basin Monday morning. The cold front over the Gulf of
Mexico will extends across NW Caribbean waters by Monday near
sunrise.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are across the Dominican Republic associated with
the outer rainbands of Tropical Storm Nicole located in the SW N
Atlantic waters. Showers will continue later today through
Sunday evening being enhanced by a tropical wave with axis just W
of Puerto Rico early this afternoon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Hurricane Matthew is now N of the forecast waters, however
tropical storm force winds prevail over central and NE Florida
adjacent waters with seas up to 12 ft. The second feature of
concern is Tropical Storm Nicole located about 408 nm north of San
Juan, Puerto Rico. See latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details and also
the special features section above. The remainder of the Atlantic is
dominated by a surface ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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