[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 31.6N 80.6W at 08/0600 UTC or
about 40 nm south of Hilton Head, South Carolina and 85 nm south-
southwest of Charleston, South Carolina moving north at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered to numerous
strong convection is from 31N-32N between 80W-81W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection covers the remainder of
the area from 30N-33N west of 78W to the coast of Georgia and
inland over South Carolina. See latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the
full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC for more details.

Hurricane Nicole is centered near 26.3N 65.3W at 08/0300 UTC or
about 360 nm south of Bermuda and about 480 nm north of San
Juan, Puerto Rico moving south at 6 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50
kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 23N-26N between 62W-68W. See latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic is along 31W/32W
from 5N-16N moving west near 15 kt over the past 12 hours. Wave
coincides with a weak 700 mb trough north of 10N and is embedded
within a surge of moisture. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
7N49W to 20N45W moving west-northwest near 15 kt over the past
24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough and is embedded
within an area of moisture south of 16N. Small clusters of
scattered moderate convection are from 10N-14N between 41W-49W.

Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends along 65W from over the
Virgin Islands to the coast of Venezuela moving west 10 to 15 kt
over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough and
remains embedded within a broad area of moisture. However, no
associated deep convection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W to 8N19W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 5N22W 8N27W to 7N30W. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are from 6N-10N between
12W-17W and from 5N-12N between 20W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Benign upper features dominate the Gulf waters tonight with dry
air and strong subsidence covering the Gulf with clear skies
north of 26N. Isolated showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms dot the area south of 26N. Fresh to strong north
winds will affect the northeast Gulf tonight as Hurricane
Matthew moves along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina. An
upper trough moving across the upper and middle Mississippi
Valley is supporting a cold front that is currently inland over
east Texas. This front will move into the northwest Gulf by
morning and reach south Florida to south Mexico by Sunday. Fresh
to strong northerly winds are expected northwest of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper low dominates the Caribbean tonight centered near
15N77W and is generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from 14N-20N between 78W-85W. The monsoon trough
extends from Colombia near 10N75W along 9N80W to across Costa
Rica near 10N84W generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms south of 11N between Colombia and Costa Rica.
Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms dot the
east Caribbean east of 70W to over the Lesser Antilles. The
tropical wave will move south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola
into the central Caribbean through Sunday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Skies remain clear across the island tonight. The tropical wave
will move south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Sunday.
Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms are possible through
the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The primary concern again tonight continues to be Hurricane
Matthew moving along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina. A
secondary concern is Tropical Storm Nicole between Bermuda and
Puerto Rico. See Special Features above. Lingering moisture is
generating isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
from 22N-31N west of 74W to over the Florida peninsula. The
remainder of the Atlantic east of 60W is dominated by a surface
ridge with a weak 1016 mb high near 28N48W. Matthew is expected
turn to north-northeast and then to the northeast during the day
Saturday. On this track, the center of Matthew will continue to
move near or over the coast of Georgia through tonight, near or
over the coast of South Carolina later tonight and Saturday, and
near the coast of southern North Carolina on Saturday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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