[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072331
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
731 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 30.2N 80.7W at 07/2100 UTC or
about 35 nm E of Jacksonville, Florida, moving north at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt making Matthew a
category 2 hurricane. Numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail
north of 27N between 75W-82W affecting portions of northeast
Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. The center of Matthew will
continue to move near the coast of northeast Florida and Georgia
through tonight, and near or over the coast of South Carolina on
Saturday. Matthew will remain as a hurricane until it begins to
move away from the United States on Sunday. The combination of a
dangerous storm surge, the tides, and large and destructive waves
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Please see the latest
NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/
WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

T.S. Nicole center is located near 27.0N 65.2W or 317 nm south of
Bermuda. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms are from 22N-27N between 62W-67W.
Swells associated with Nicole, along with rough surf conditions,
will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. Please
see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic near the Cape Verde
Islands with axis extending from 16N30W to 04N30W, moving west at
around 10-15 kt. Abundant moisture is depicted in TPW imagery
surrounding this wave. Cloudiness and isolated showers prevail
along and east of the wave axis between 20W-30W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 20N44W to 06N47W, moving west at 10 kt within the last 18
hours. TPW imagery depicts a surge of moisture between 40W-50W and
model guidance show an inverted trough at 700 mb in this area
also. Isolated showers have developed along the wave's axis south
of 12N.

A tropical wave in the Caribbean with axis extending from 19N63W
to 10N65W, moving west at 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Low-level
moisture and an upper-level diffluent flow support scattered
showers south of 15N between 60W-67W affecting the Windward
Islands.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W to 06N30W to 07N32W where the ITCZ begins
and continues to 09N47W to 08N57W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, no convection is observed
along these boundaries at this time.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Northwesterly strong to near gale-force winds prevail north of
27N east of 85W associated with Hurricane Matthew that is located
over the west Atlantic and moving north along the northern Florida
coastline. moves along NE Florida coastal waters. Light to
moderate northeasterly winds are depicted in scatterometer data
across the remainder of the basin. Fair weather prevails across
the basin at this time. A cold front will push into the northwest
Gulf by Saturday reaching from southern Florida to southern
Mexico on Sunday. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected
north of the front, with seas building to 8-9 ft near the coast
of Veracruz.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the Caribbean is a tropical wave moving
across the eastern portion of the basin generating showers across
the Windward Islands and adjacent waters. See the section above
for more details. An upper-level low is centered near 16N76W. This
feature combined with the Monsoon Trough that extends along 10N
between 76W-82W is enhancing convection across the western
Caribbean waters and central America mainly west of 76W. Light and
variable winds prevail across the western Caribbean west of 80W
while gentle to moderate trades dominate the central and eastern
waters. Expect during the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to
continue moving west with convection. A similar weather pattern
will prevail elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time supported by
strong subsidence aloft. Scattered showers are expected to
develop across the island by Saturday ahead of a tropical wave
that currently is located east of Puerto Rico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Hurricane Matthew continues over the west Atlantic waters while
T.S. Nicole is centered along 65W. Please refer to the section
above for details. Two tropical waves are moving across the
central and east Atlantic. For more information, see the section
above. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a
weak surface ridge anchored by a 1016 mb high centered near
28N50W. Expect through the next 24 hours for Matthew to continue
moving northward while Nicole will drift south. Little change is
expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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