[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 28.9N 80.3W at 07/1200 UTC or
about 30 nm N-NE of Cape Canaveral, Florida and about 39 nm
southeast of Daytona Beach, Florida moving north-northwest at 12
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt making
Matthew a category 3 hurricane. Scattered to numerous strong
convection is within 45 nm over the west semicircle. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection covers the remainder of
the area from 26N-30N west of 74W to over the Florida peninsula.
See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

Hurricane Nicole is centered near 27.3N 65.2W at 07/0900 UTC or
300 nm south of Bermuda moving south near 1 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 25N-28N between 62W-66W. See latest
NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic is along 42W/43W
from 7N-14N moving west 5 to 10 kt over the past 12 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough and and is within an area of
drier air. Thus, no associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends along 68W from the Mona
Passage to over Venezuela moving northwest near 15 kt over the
past 24 hours. Wave is west of a 700 mb trough and remains
embedded within a broad area of moisture. However, no associated
deep convection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N16W to 9N19W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 8N27W to 8N35W. Clusters of scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection are from 4N-9N between 11W-18W and
from 8N-13N between 23W-34W. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection are from 3N-8N between 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge over the west Gulf is anchored just off the coast
of Mexico near Veracruz and extends an upper ridge axis
northeast to 27N90W. An upper trough over the southeast CONUS
extends into the east Gulf over southeast Louisiana along 27N88W
continuing over the east Yucatan peninsula and through the
Yucatan Channel to the northwest Caribbean. Dense low clouds,
with no showers evident on radar, cover the northeast Gulf north
of 26N east of 90W. Hurricane Matthew is bringing isolated
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms over the far east
Gulf south of 26N east of 86W through the Straits of Florida.
This activity will continue as Hurricane Matthew moves along the
east coast of Florida. Fresh to strong northerly winds are
expected in the northeast Gulf today as Hurricane Matthew moves
along the east coast of Florida. A cold front will push into the
northwest Gulf Saturday reaching from southern Florida to
southern Mexico Sunday. Fresh to strong northeast winds are
expected north of the front. Seas will build to 8 to 9 ft near
the coast of Veracruz with northerly strong to near gale force
winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper trough over the east Gulf of Mexico extends over the
east Yucatan peninsula and through the Yucatan Channel to over
Central America with an upper low along the coast of the Yucatan
near 20N87W. This upper trough covers the northwest Caribbean west
of 84W. A narrow upper ridge associated with Hurricane Mathew
extends south across central Cuba to the coast of Nicaragua near
13N84W. An inverted upper trough covers the remainder of the
Caribbean east of 79W with an upper low near 15N74W. Lingering
moisture is generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from Panama to over Cuba between 74W-83W. The
tropical wave will move into the central Caribbean through
Saturday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Skies are clear across the island this morning. The tropical
wave will approach the island today through Saturday. This could
bring isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms
to the island Friday night and Saturday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The primary concern again this morning continues to be Hurricane
Matthew moving along the east coast of Florida. A secondary
concern is Hurricane Nicole south of Bermuda. See Special
Features above. An upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is
supporting a stationary front that extends through 32N26W to
30N37W with scattered showers within 75 nm south of the front.
The remainder of the Atlantic east of 60W is dominated by a
surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high west of the Azores and
a weak 1019 mb high near 28N50W. Matthew is expected turn to
north tonight or Saturday. On this track, the center of Matthew
will be moving near or over the east coast of the Florida
peninsula through tonight, and near or over the coasts of
Georgia and South Carolina on Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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