[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 27.6N 79.7W at 07/0600 UTC or
about 39 nm east of Vero Beach, Florida and 69 nm southeast of
Cape Canaveral, Florida moving northwest at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 938 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt making Matthew a category 3
hurricane. Scattered to numerous strong convection is within 30
nm over north semicircle and within 45 nm over south semicircle.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection covers the
remainder of the area from 24N-31N west of 73W to over the
Florida peninsula. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.

Hurricane Nicole is centered near 27.4N 65.2W at 07/0300 UTC or
295 nm south of Bermuda. Nicole is currently stationary.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 25N-28N between 62W-66W. See
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave was introduced in the central Tropical Atlantic
along 43W/43W from 7N-15N moving west 5 to 10 kt over the past 6
hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough and but is within an
area of drier air. Thus, no associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the east Caribbean extends along 66W/67W from
Puerto Rico to over Venezuela moving northwest near 15 kt over
the past 24 hours. Wave is west of a 700 mb trough and remains
embedded within a broad area of moisture. However, no associated
deep convection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 13N17W to 12N18W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 6N31W to 8N45W. Clusters of scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection are from 5N-10N between 12W-17W
and from 5N-12N between 23W-34W. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection are from 3N-8N between 19W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge over the west Gulf is anchored along the coast of
Mexico near Veracruz and extends an upper ridge axis northeast
to 26N90W. An upper trough extends covers the southeast CONUS
and extends into the east Gulf over southeast Louisiana along
26N89W continuing through the Yucatan Channel into the northwest
Caribbean. Dense low clouds, with no showers evident on radar,
cover the northeast Gulf north of 26N east of 90W to the coast
of Florida. Hurricane Matthew is bringing scattered showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms over the far east Gulf south of
29N east of 84W. This activity will continue as Hurricane
Matthew moves along the east coast of Florida. Winds and seas
will continue over the east Gulf through Friday night as
Hurricane Matthew moves along the east coast of Florida. A cold
front will move into the northwest Gulf on Saturday then reach
the southeast Gulf on late Sunday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper trough over the east Gulf of Mexico extends through
the Yucatan Channel through an upper low near 20N85W to over
Central America covering the northwest Caribbean west of 83W. An
upper ridge associated with Hurricane Mathew extends across
central Cuba to the south coast of Nicaragua. An inverted upper
trough covers the remainder of the Caribbean east of 76W with an
upper low near 14N72W. Lingering moisture and the circulation
associated with Hurricane Matthew are generating scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 21N to Cuba
between 74W-82W. Winds and seas will continue to diminish across
the north/central Caribbean tonight. The tropical wave will move
across the central Caribbean Friday and Saturday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Skies are clear across most of the island tonight with the
exception of some isolated showers over the southwest peninsula
of Haiti west of 73W. The tropical wave will approach the island
late Friday and Saturday. This could bring isolated to scattered
showers and possible thunderstorms to the island Friday night
and Saturday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The primary concern tonight continues to be Hurricane Matthew
moving along the east coast of Florida. A secondary concern is
Hurricane Nicole south of Bermuda. See Special Features above.
The remainder of the Atlantic east of 60W is dominated by a
surface ridge anchored by a 1024 mb high west of the Azores and
a pair of weak 1021 mb highs near 30N51W and 28N38W. Matthew is
expected turn to north-northwest on Friday with a turn to north
Friday night or Saturday. On this track, the center of Matthew
will be moving near or over the east coast of the Florida
peninsula through Friday night, and near or over the coasts of
Georgia and South Carolina on Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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