[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 29.4N 80.6W at 07/1600 UTC or
about 26 nm E-NE of Daytona Beach, Florida and about 78 nm SE of
Jacksonville, Florida moving north-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 947 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt making Matthew a category 3
hurricane. Numerous strong convection is within 60 nm of the
center of Matthew. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
covers the remainder of the area from 26N-33N between 75W and 82W,
including the Florida peninsula. The center of Matthew will
continue to move near or over the coast of northeast Florida and
Georgia through tonight, and near or over the coast of South
Carolina on Saturday. Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane
until it begins to move away from the United States on Sunday. Matthew
is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches
over the Atlantic coast of the United States from central Florida
to eastern North Carolina...with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 15 inches. The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the
tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry
areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland
from the shoreline. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.

Nicole weakened to a Tropical Storm at 07/1500 UTC. Its center is
stationary near 27.5N 65.3W or 291 nm south of Bermuda. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 24N-27N between 61W-66W. Swells associated with Nicole, along with
rough surf conditions, should continue to affect Bermuda for the
next few days. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic near the Cape Verde
Islands extending from 04N to 16N with axis near 29W. This wave
was added this morning based on satellite and wave diagnostic
guidance. Abundant low level moisture in the wave environment and
middle to upper level diffluent wind support scattered showers
and isolated tstms from 02N to 16N between 20W and 32W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 07N to
18N with axis near 44W moving W at 10 kt within the last 18 hours.
Unfavorable deep layer wind shear and Saharan dry air and dust
are inhibiting convection at the time.

A tropical wave in the Caribbean has been repositioned this
morning based on satellite imagery, model wave diagnostic guidance
and surface observations. The wave extends from 10N to 18N with
axis near 63W moving W at 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave
is in a region of favorable deep layer wind shear. Low level
moisture and upper level diffluent flow support scattered showers
from 11N to 17N between 58W and 66W, including the Lesser
Antilles.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 09N13W to 08N23W to 07N32W where the ITCZ begins
and continues to 06N48W. Aside from the convection associated with
the tropical waves, scattered showers and isolated tstms are from
04N to 10N E of 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Northwesterly to north strong to near gale-force wind is N of 27N
east of 85W associated with Major Hurricane Matthew that moves
along NE Florida coastal waters. Isolated showers will continue
this afternoon E of 85W associated with the outer rainbands of
Matthew, including the Straits of Florida. Both winds and showers
are expected to cease in this portion of the basin before the sunrise
on Saturday. A cold front will push into the northwest Gulf
Saturday reaching from southern Florida to southern Mexico Sunday.
Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected north of the front.
Seas will build to 8 to 9 ft near the coast of Veracruz with
northerly strong to near gale force winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the Caribbean is a tropical wave moving
across the eastern basin generating showers across the Windward
Islands and adjacent waters. Trailing moisture from Hurricane
Matthew and diffluent flow aloft support isolated showers and
tstms N of 12N between 75W and 84W. In the SW basin, low pressure
over northern Colombia and the east Pacific monsoon trough support
a cluster of heavy showers and tstms S of 11N between 75W and 79W.
Isolated showers and tstms are within 60 nm off the coasts of
Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate trades dominate the
central and eastern waters of the Caribbean; gentle SW flow is in
the NW basin associated with Matthew. The tropical wave will be S
of Hispaniola Sunday. A new tropical wave is expected to enter the
basin Monday morning.

...HISPANIOLA...

Skies are clear across the island being supported by strong
subsidence from aloft. However, showers are expected to develop
across the Dominican Republic starting tomorrow ahead of a
tropical wave currently across the E Caribbean. Showers will
extends to the western Island Sunday when the wave will be
crossing the central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main feature of concern in the basin is Hurricane Matthew
moving along the NE coastal waters of Florida. The second feature
of concern is now Tropical Storm Nicole located roughly 291 nm
south of Bermuda at 1500 UTC. See Special Features above for
further details. Over the central Atlc, a 1017 mb high is located
near 28N47W, which is expected to dissipate in less than 24 hours.
To the NE, a 1015 mb low is near 29N40W also dissipating in less
than 24 hours. Weak surface ridging dominates elsewhere in the NE
forecast waters. The center of Matthew will
continue to move near or over the coast of northeast Florida and
Georgia through tonight, and near or over the coast of South
Carolina on Saturday. Swells associated with Nicole, along with rough surf
conditions, should continue to affect Bermuda for the next few
days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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