[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 23.7N 76.7W at 06/0600 UTC or
about 87 nm south-southeast of Nassau and about 256 nm southeast
of West Palm Beach, Florida moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt making Matthew a category 3
hurricane. Scattered to numerous strong convection is within 60
nm over east semicircle and within 75 nm over west semicircle.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection covers the
remainder of the area from 18N-26N between 72W-78W, including
northwest Haiti, east Cuba, and the central Bahama islands. See
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 26.0N 64.1W at 06/0300
UTC or 390 nm south of Bermuda and about 470 nm north-northeast
of San Juan, Puerto Rico moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 23N-27N between 60W-65W. See latest
NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave extends from 20N58W to 10N61W moving northwest
near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb
trough south of 13N and remains embedded within an area of
moisture. No associated deep convection is noted.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W to 9N19W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 6N30W to 5N43W. Clusters of scattered moderate
strong convection are from 7N-10N between 27N-36W and from 5N-
10N between 36W-46W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection are from 3N-6N between 20W-31W and from 2N-6N
between 31W-39W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are
from 4N-11N between 46W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge anchored over south/central Mexico extends an
upper ridge axis into the Gulf near Veracruz to 27N88W covering
most of the west Gulf of Mexico. An upper trough extends from
near Mobile Alabama along 28N85W then south through the Yucatan
Channel into the northwest Caribbean generating isolated showers
and possible isolated thunderstorms from 25N-28N between 86W-
91W. An upper trough over the northwest Atlantic extends a weak
stationary front across northeast Florida from Jacksonville into
the Gulf near 29N85W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are in
the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida south of 26N east
of 84W. This activity precedes the activity associated with
Hurricane Matthew. Winds and seas will increase over the east
Gulf tonight through Friday night as Hurricane Matthew moves
northward across the Bahamas and along the east coast of
Florida. A cold front will move into the northwest Gulf on
Saturday then reach the southeast Gulf on Sunday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper trough over the east Gulf of Mexico extends through
the Yucatan Channel along 86W covering the northwest Caribbean
west of 81W. An upper ridge associated with Hurricane Matthew
covers the central Caribbean while a narrow inverted upper
trough covers the east Caribbean extending from over Venezuela
near 10N63W across the Virgin Islands to near 23N65W. Lingering
moisture and with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are north of a line from 13N66W to 19N83W including Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba. The monsoon trough extends across
the southwest Caribbean along 9N/10N between Colombia and Costa
Rica with isolated showers and thunderstorms south of 10N. Winds
and seas associated with Hurricane Matthew will continue to
diminish across the north/central Caribbean tonight. A tropical
wave will move across the Lesser Antilles late tonight and will
reach Puerto Rico Thursday evening, and the Dominican Republic
Friday evening.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the
island tonight as Hurricane Matthew continues to move away from
the island. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish
across the island through tonight. A tropical wave will approach
the island Friday and could bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the island Friday and Saturday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A main concern tonight is Hurricane Matthew moving across the
Bahamas and toward the southeast Florida. A secondary concern is
Tropical Storm Nicole north-northeast of Puerto Rico. See
Special Features above. A broad upper trough over the northwest
Atlantic continues to support a stationary front that extends
through 32N77W to over Florida near Jacksonville with isolated
showers and possible thunderstorms within 60 nm of the front.
The upper ridge associated with Hurricane Matthew is providing
difflunce aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from 26N-29N between 74W-79W and south of a line
from 22N72W to 20N66W to over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The
remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge
anchored by a 1028 mb high west of the Azores. Matthew is
expected to track northwest tonight and Thursday with a turn to
north-northwest expected Thursday night. The center of Matthew
should pass near Andros Island and New Providence in the
northwestern Bahamas early this morning, then pass near Grand
Bahama Island late today, and move very close to the east coast
of the Florida peninsula Thursday night through Friday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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