[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061151
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 24.6N 77.5W at 06/1200 UTC or
about 26 nm south-southwest of Nassau and about 186 nm southeast
of West Palm Beach, Florida moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 940 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt making Matthew a strong category
3 hurricane. Scattered to numerous strong convection is within
30 nm over north semicircle and within 75 nm over south
semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
covers the remainder of the area from 21N-28N between 73W-79W,
including portions of Cuba and the central Bahama Islands. See
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 26.5N 64.7W at 06/0900
UTC or 350 nm south of Bermuda and about 490 nm north of San
Juan, Puerto Rico moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60
kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 24N-28N between 61W-66W. See latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave extends from 19N59W to 10N61W moving northwest
near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb
trough south of 13N and remains embedded within an area of
moisture. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 11N-
16N between 53W-58W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W to 8N17W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 7N30W to 6N42W. Clusters of scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection are from 3N-5N between 16W-26W and
from 5N-10N between 26W-47W. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection are from 5N-10N between 47W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge anchored over south/central Mexico extends an
upper ridge axis into the Gulf between Veracruz and Tuxpan to
27N88W covering most of the west Gulf of Mexico. An upper trough
extends from near Mobile Alabama along 27N85W then south through
the Yucatan Channel into the northwest Caribbean generating
isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms from 27N-
29N between 87W-90W. Dense low clouds cover the northeast Gulf
north of 27N east of 87W to over northeast Florida. Isolated
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are across the
central Gulf from 23N-27N between 84W-96W. Winds and seas will
increase over the east Gulf through Friday night as Hurricane
Matthew moves northward across the Bahamas then along the east
coast of Florida. A cold front will move into the northwest Gulf
on Saturday then reach the southeast Gulf on Sunday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper trough over the east Gulf of Mexico extends through
the Yucatan Channel to over Central America along 86W covering
the northwest Caribbean west of 81W. An upper ridge is anchored
over the southwest Caribbean near 13N81W extending an upper
ridge axis north through the Windward Passage. A narrow inverted
upper trough covers the east Caribbean extending from over
Venezuela near 10N65W across Puerto Rico to near 22N67W.
Lingering moisture and with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are north of 12N to over Puerto Rico to Hispaniola
between 68W-76W and north of 17N across Jamaica to over Cuba
between 76W-79W. Winds and seas associated with Hurricane
Matthew will continue to diminish across the north/central
Caribbean today. A tropical wave will move across the Lesser
Antilles early this morning and will reach Puerto Rico Friday,
and the Dominican Republic by Saturday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the
island this morning. These showers and thunderstorms will
gradually diminish across the island through today. A tropical
wave will approach the island late Friday and could bring
another round of showers and thunderstorms to the island Friday
night and Saturday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A main concern this morning is Hurricane Matthew moving across
the Bahamas and toward the southeast Florida. A secondary
concern is Tropical Storm Nicole north of Puerto Rico. See
Special Features above. A broad upper trough over the northwest
Atlantic continues to support a stationary front that extends
through 32N77W to over Florida near Saint Augustine with
isolated showers and possible thunderstorms within 60 nm of the
front. The upper ridge associated with Hurricane Matthew is
providing difflunce aloft to generate scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from over Cuba to 30N between 73W-80W.
The remainder of the Atlantic east of 60W is dominated by a
surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high west of the Azores and
a weak 1021 mb high near 31N52W. Matthew is expected to track
northwest today with a turn to north-northwest expected tonight.
The center of Matthew should pass near Andros Island and New
Providence in the northwestern Bahamas early this morning, then
pass near Grand Bahama Island late today, and move very close to
the east coast of the Florida peninsula tonight through Friday
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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