[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052342
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
742 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 22.5N 75.7W at 05/2100 UTC or
about 178 nm south-southeast of Nassau, Bahamas and about 348 nm
southeast of West Palm Beach, Florida moving northwest at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 125 kt. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are located from 19N-24N between 73W-
78W including eastern Cuba and most of the Bahamas. Please see
the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 25.3N 63.5W at 05/2100 UTC
or about 425 nm south of Bermuda moving west-northwest at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is located from 24N-27N between 61W-65W. Please see
the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic with axis
extending from 20N56W to 09N61W, moving west near 15 kt over the
past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough depicted by
global models south of 14N and is embedded within a surge of
moisture. Scattered moderate convection is located from 10n-20n
between 51W-60W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from west Africa into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 16N16W to 12N19W where the ITCZ begins and
continues to 06N30W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is located from 03N-09N between 30W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle/upper level ridge covers the western two-thirds of the
gulf with the axis extending from the western Bay of Campeche to
26N90W to the central Florida panhandle. A sharp middle/upper
level trough over the eastern gulf has its axis extending from
near Jacksonville, Florida through the Yucatan Channel. Skies are
generally fair over the entire gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sharp middle/upper level trough has its axis extending through
the Yucatan Channel to just east of Belize. Light winds aloft
cover the central Caribbean. Refer to the Special Features
section above for convection associated with Matthew. Cloudiness
and convection continues south of this area to 15N between 70W to
80W including Hispaniola. Scatterometer data depicts moderate
trades over the area. A tropical wave will enter the east
Caribbean by late tonight enhancing convection across the area as
it moves west.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue across
the island due to the outer effects of Hurricane Matthew.
Warnings have been discontinued for Haiti. Shower and thunderstorm
activity will gradually diminish across the island through tonight
and tomorrow.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Hurricane Matthew and Tropical Storm Nicole are impacting the
western Atlantic this evening. Please see the Special Features
section above for details. A tropical wave is approaching the
Lesser Antilles. Refer to the section above for details.
A stationary front extends across northern Florida reaching the
west Atlantic from 32N77W to 30N81W with isolated showers. A 1020
mb surface high is located near 27N31W with a ridge extending
westward to near 28N60W. A middle/upper level ridge covers the
area roughly north of 25N west of 55W and is steering Matthew to
the northwest. A middle/upper level trough is located over the
central Atlantic with its axis from 26N30W to 22N55W. A
middle/upper level cyclonic circulation is over the eastern
Atlantic near 27N16W. A subtropical jet extends from 18N45W to
24N32W to the African coast at 19N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
CAB
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