[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
138 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 21.8N 75.2W at 05/1500 UTC or
about 48 nm north-northeast of Cabo Lucrecia Cuba and about 91 nm
south of Long Island, Bahamas moving north at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 962 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 105 kt with gusts to 125 kt. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are from 18N-24N between 70W-78W affecting portions
of eastern Cuba and west Hispaniola. Please see the latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/
WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 25.0N 62.8W at 05/1500 UTC
or about 434 nm north-northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico moving
west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 23N-26N between 59W-64W.
Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic with axis
extending from 17N56W to 09N59W, moving west near 15 kt over the
past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough depicted by
global models south of 14N and is embedded within a surge of
moisture. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the
northern portion of the wave mainly north of 13N between 48W-58W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from west Africa into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 15N17W to 11N18W where the ITCZ begins and
continues to 06N34W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 04N-09N between 30W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends southwest from eastern CONUS across the
basin. With this, fair weather prevails over the most of the Gulf
waters except north of 27N between 86W-94W where a diffluent flow
aloft supports isolated convection. Scatterometer data depicts a
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the area. Expect
during the next 24 hours for Hurricane Matthew enter the west
Atlantic from the Windward Passage. Matthew will enhance
winds/seas/convection across the Florida Straits and Florida
Peninsula. Little change is expected elsewhere.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The primary concern in the Caribbean this morning is Hurricane
Matthew which is moving away from eastern Cuba. Please refer to
the Special Features above for details. Cloudiness and convection
due to Matthew extends across most of the basin east of 80W,
with strongest activity affecting the Windward Passage, eastern
Cuba, and the northwest portion of Hispaniola. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate trades over the area. Showers and thunderstorms
will gradually diminish across the Caribbean Islands today through
tonight. Expect during the next 24 hours for the showers and
thunderstorms to gradually diminish across the northwest Caribbean
Islands. A tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean by late
tonight enhancing convection across the area as it moves west.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue across
the island due to Hurricane Matthew. A Tropical Storm Warning
remains in effect for Haiti. Showers and thunderstorms will
gradually diminish across the island through tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Hurricane Matthew and T.S Nicole are moving across the western
Atlantic. Please see the Special Features section above for
details. A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Refer
to the section above for details. A stationary front extends
across northern Florida reaching the west Atlantic from 30N81W to
33N77W with isolated showers. To the south; a surface trough
extends from 31N77W to 27N78W. Scattered showers due to the
proximity of Matthew and the previously mentioned features is
observed between 70W-80W. The remainder of the basin is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered
near 28N30W. Matthew is expected to track northwest moving across the
Bahamas through Thursday, and is expected to be very near to the
east coast of Florida by late Thursday/early Friday. Nicole will
continue moving northwest through the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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