[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051150
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 21.5N 74.9W at 05/1200 UTC or
about 39 nm north-northeast of Cabo Lucrecia Cuba and about 100
nm south of Long Island, Bahamas moving north at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 964 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt making Matthew a category 3
hurricane. Scattered to numerous strong convection is within 30
nm of the center over the east semicircle. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection covers the remainder of the area from
16N-22N between 70W-76W, including Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.
See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 24.3N 61.8W at 05/0900
UTC or about 425 nm north-northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico
moving west-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are
from 22N-26N between 58W-63W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave extends from 15N53W to 8N58W moving west-northwest
near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb
trough south of 13N and remains embedded within a surge of
moisture. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 90/120 nm of a line from 15N44W 14N51W to 16N57W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from a 1009 mb low inland over west
Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 14N17W to 11N21W
where the ITCZ begins and continues along 9N27W 5N37W 4N46W to
1N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
4N-8N between 27W-48W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection
are from the equator to 2N between 36W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge anchored over south/central Mexico extends an
upper ridge axis into the Gulf near Tuxpan along 26N91W to the
Florida panhandle near Panama City. A shortwave upper trough is
moving through the upper ridge extending from Louisiana near
31N93W to 26N92W generating scattered showers and a possible
stray thunderstorm north of 26N to inland over Louisiana between
90W-94W. A narrow upper trough extends from over northeast
Florida near Jacksonville through an upper low near 24N85W
through the Yucatan Channel into the northwest Caribbean
generating isolated showers in the Straits of Florida between
the Florida Keys and west Cuba east of 82W and in the northeast
Gulf from 27N-29N between 85W-88W. A weak surface ridge has
built over the northeast Gulf anchored over New England. Winds
and seas will increase over the east Gulf today through Friday
night as Hurricane Matthew moves north across the Bahamas and
along the east coast of Florida through the end of the week. A
new cold front may push into the northwest Gulf by the end of
the week, moving across the Gulf during the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The primary concern in the Caribbean this morning are the
remnant affects of Hurricane Matthew moving away from eastern
Cuba. See Special Features above. The upper trough over the east
Gulf of Mexico extends through the Yucatan Channel just off the
east coast of the Yucatan peninsula covering the northwest
Caribbean west of 81W. The remainder of the Caribbean is
dominated by an upper ridge associated with Hurricane Matthew.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the coast
of Nicaragua from 12N-14N west of 82W. Scattered showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms are over the east Caribbean
north of 13N east of 63W to over the Lesser Antilles and north
of 16N to over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic between 62W-70W. Hurricane Matthew is
expected to track north-northwest over the Bahama Islands today.
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish across the
Caribbean Islands today through tonight. A tropical wave will
move into the east Caribbean late tonight then approach Puerto
Rico Thursday evening, and the Dominican Republic Friday
evening.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
continue across the island this morning as Hurricane Matthew
continues to move away from the island. Hurricane warning
remains in effect for Haiti with Tropical Storm warning for
portions of the Dominican Republic this morning. Showers and
thunderstorms will gradually diminish across the island today
through tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A main concern this morning is Hurricane Matthew moving across
the Bahamas and toward the southeastern CONUS. A secondary
concern is Tropical Storm Nicole northeast of Puerto Rico. See
Special Features above. A broad upper trough over the northwest
Atlantic continues to support a stationary front that extends
through 32N79W to 31N80W. A surface trough extends from 32N75W
to over Florida near Melbourne. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are north of 29N between 70W-74W and from within
60/75 nm of a line from 26N74W to over the Bahamas to Andros
Island. The upper ridge associated with Hurricane Matthew is
providing difflunce aloft to generate scattered showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms south of 29N between 70W-80W and
south of a line from 25N70W to 20N64W, including all of the
Bahama Islands, the Turks and Caicos, the Virgin Islands and the
Greater Antilles. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by
a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high in the central
Atlantic near 32N53W and a pair of weak 1020 mb highs in the
east Atlantic near 34N31W and 28N32W. A weak surface trough is
between these weak highs extending from 31N32W along 29N40W to
28N46W. Matthew is expected to track north with a turn to north-
northwest expected later today, followed by a turn toward the
northwest tonight. Matthew will be moving across the Bahamas
through Thursday, and is expected to be very near the east coast
of Florida by Thursday evening through Friday tracking north-
northwest.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

PAW
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