[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 20.7N 74.4W at 05/0300 UTC or
about 30 nm north-northwest of the eastern tip of Cuba and about
70 nm west-southwest of Great Inagua Island, Bahamas moving
north at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt
making Matthew a category 3 hurricane. Scattered to numerous
strong convection is within 60 nm of the center over the south
semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
covers the remainder of the area from 16N-21N between 68W-76W,
including Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. See latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 24.2N 61.3W at 05/0300
UTC or about 438 nm northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico moving
west-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within
60 nm of a line from 22N62W 23N59W to 24N59W. See latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave extends from 15N57W to 7N57W moving west-northwest
at 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700
mb trough south of 13N and remains embedded within a surge of
moisture. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 120 nm of a line from 16N41W 14N48W to 15N57W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from a 1009 mb low inland over west
Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 12N16W to 10N19W
where the ITCZ begins and continues along 7N22W 6N29W 4N35W to
3N46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
4N-8N between 27W-46W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection
are from 4N-9N between 46W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge anchored over south/central Mexico extends an
upper ridge axis into the Gulf near Tuxpan to the Florida
panhandle near Tallahassee. A shortwave upper trough is moving
through the upper ridge from along the Louisiana and Texas
border to 26N93W generating scattered showers and a possible
stray thunderstorm north of 26N between 90W-94W to inland over
Louisiana. A narrow upper trough extends from over northeast
Florida near Jacksonville through an upper low near 24N86W to
along the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula generating
isolated showers from 27N-29N between 83W-87W. A weak surface
ridge is building south over the northeast Gulf anchored by a
1027 mb high over Pennsylvania. Winds and seas will increase
over the east Gulf late Wednesday through Friday as Hurricane
Matthew moves north across the Bahamas and along the east coast
of Florida.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The primary concern tonight is Hurricane Matthew moving away
from eastern Cuba. See Special Features above. The upper trough
over the east Gulf of Mexico extends along the east coast of the
Yucatan peninsula covering the northwest Caribbean west of 83W.
The remainder of the Caribbean is dominated by an upper ridge
associated with Hurricane Matthew. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are inland and within 45 nm along the
coast of Nicaragua from 12N-14N. Scattered showers and possible
isolated thunderstorms are over the east Caribbean north of 13N
east of 75W including the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico. Hurricane Matthew is expected to track
northwest along the Bahama Island chain but could continue to
give Cuba showers and thunderstorms Wednesday with tranquil
conditions moving in by Thursday. A tropical wave will move into
the east Caribbean Thursday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
continue across the island tonight as Hurricane Matthew is
moving away from eastern Cuba. Hurricane and Tropical Storm
conditions will continue across the island through Wednesday
with conditions improving Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain
amounts of 4 to 8 inches have been reported around the island
with the highest amount in Santo Domingo.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A main concern tonight is Hurricane Matthew moving out of the
Caribbean to over the Bahama Island chain and toward the
southeastern CONUS. A secondary concern is Tropical Storm Nicole
northeast of Puerto Rico. See Special Features above. A narrow
upper trough extends along the eastern seaboard from North
Carolina across northeast Florida near Jacksonville into the east
Gulf of Mexico. A broader upper trough over the northwest
Atlantic continues to support a frontal boundary north of the
area with a surface trough extending from 31N77W to 28N80W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 28N
between 70W-74W. The upper ridge associated with Hurricane
Matthew is providing difflunce aloft to generate scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms south of a line from 28N78W
to 25N70W to 20N64W, including all of the Bahama Islands, the
Turks and Caicos, and the Greater Antilles. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms dot the area from 17N-22N between 50W-60W. The
remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge
anchored by a 1022 mb high in the central Atlantic near 31N53W
and a trio of 1021 mb highs in the east Atlantic near 31N37W,
34N31W, and 28N30W. A weak surface trough is between these weak
highs extending from 31N33W along 29N37W to 28N44W. Matthew is
expected to track north tonight with a turn to north-northwest
expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest
Wednesday night. Matthew will be moving through the Bahamas
through Thursday, and is expected to be very near the east coast
of Florida by Thursday evening through Friday tracking north-
northwest.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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