[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
757 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Matthew is centered near 20.1N 74.3W at 05/0000 UTC or
about 10 nm SW of the eastern tip of Cuba and about 50 nm ENE of
Guantanamo Cuba moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 949 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with
gusts to 145 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection
is from 18N-21N between 72W-75W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is elsewhere from 14N-22N between 66W-79W. See
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 24.1N 61.1W at 04/2100 UTC
or about 440 nm NE of San Juan Puerto Rico moving NW at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 20N-26N between 57W-62W. See latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 07N56N to 17N51W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing S of 15N between
49W-59W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
from 06N-15N between 45W-59W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
09N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
09N19W to 05N30W to 06N42W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 09N-13N between 13W-16W...and from 04N-07N
between 27W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level trough extends from over eastern Georgia S-SW over
much of the eastern Gulf waters to a base over Guatemala this
evening while upper level ridging prevails over much of the
western Gulf W of 90W. With the trough axis remaining generally E
of 85W...southwesterly flow aloft and a surface trough extending
across the central Florida peninsula is providing focus for
isolated showers and tstms N of 26N E of 85W...including interior
portions of the Florida peninsula. Farther west...water vapor
imagery indicates dry air and overall subsidence influences the
western waters with mostly fair skies and conditions. A weak
surface trough however is analyzed from the Louisiana coast near
30N93W to 26N94W supporting isolated low-topped showers N of 25N
between 91W-95W. Otherwise...gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
are noted as ridging holds across much of the basin as Hurricane
Matthew tracks northward across the far western SW North Atlc
waters to the east. As Matthew tracks N-NW and nearly parallels
the Florida peninsula coast in the SW North Atlc...the pressure
gradient is expected to strengthen Wednesday night into Thursday
across the NE Gulf waters providing the eastern Gulf with fresh
to strong N-NE winds through the remainder of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
The main concern is Hurricane Matthew located in the Windward
Passage region. An upper level ridge covers much of the Caribbean
E of 80W while an upper level trough axis extends from over the NE
Gulf of Mexico waters S-SW to a base over Guatemala this evening.
Water vapor imagery indicates the upper level troughing remains
embedded within dry air however a few isolated showers and tstms
are noted across western Cuba and portions of the Yucatan
peninsula. Farther south...a few isolated showers and tstms are
occurring across Nicaragua...Costa Rica...and Panama as weak
convergence extends eastward from the East Pacific region along
10N/11N. Otherwise as Matthew tracks northward into the SW North
Atlc overnight...the trades will continue to be disrupted through
early Wednesday then begin re-establishing themselves from east
to west thereafter through Friday night into Saturday as Matthew
is expected to be centered well north of the basin.

...HISPANIOLA...
With Hurricane Matthew centered in the Windward Passage
region...numerous showers and strong tstms continue across
Hispaniola this evening. Matthew is expected continue generating
strong winds...heavy rainfall...life-threatening flash
flooding...mud slides...dangerous storm surge...and large
destructive waves through the overnight hours into Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level trough with axis over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
is providing much of the far northwestern portions of the SW North
Atlc N of 26N W of 68W with moist and unstable SW flow aloft.
This trough supports a surface trough extending from 32N75W to the
Florida peninsula near 28N81W. Scattered showers and tstms are
generally occurring N of 27N W of 70W. The remainder of the SW
North Atlc is under the influence of the overall broad cyclonic
circulation of Matthew as it tracks northward through the Windward
Passage this evening. Outer convective bands are generating
scattered showers and tstms across much of eastern Cuba...
Hispaniola...Puerto Rico...and a large portion of the SW North
Atlc waters S of 26N W of 65W. The other important feature in the
Atlc is Tropical Storm Nicole detailed above. Otherwise...the
remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence
of a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near
29N51W and a 1021 mb high centered near 29N27W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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