[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 18.9N 74.3W at 04/1500 UTC or
about 30 nm south of Tiburon, Haiti and about 78 nm south of the
eastern tip of Cuba, moving north at 9 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt
with gusts to 150 kt. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are from 14N-22N between 67W-77W affecting
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and portions of Jamaica and Puerto Rico.
Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.

The 1009 mb surface low centered in the west Atlantic near 23N60W
is now T.S Nicole. Nicole has winds of 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
The central pressure has dropped to 1005 mb as of 04/1500 UTC.
This system is moving northwest at 7 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 20N- 25N between 55W-61W. Please see
the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A strong tropical wave extends its axis across the central
Atlantic from 16N48W to 08N54W, moving west at 15 kt over the
past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a broad inverted trough at
700 mb as depicted in model guidance and prevails in an area of
abundant moisture. A large area of scattered moderate convection
is observed from 07N-17N between 40W-59W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends over the African coast near 14N17W to
08N19W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 05N32W to 09N44W.
Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ mainly west of
25N.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Fair weather prevails across the basin with an an upper-level high
extending across the western half of the Gulf waters while an
upper-level trough extends east of 89W. A surface trough extends
across the Texas coast from 26N97W to 28N96W. Scatterometer data
depicts light to gentle easterly winds across the basin. Expect
during the next 24-48 hours for Hurricane Matthew to move north
from the western Caribbean approaching east Florida. With this,
gusty winds and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected over the far east Gulf waters and Florida Straits.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The primary concern across the basin is Hurricane Matthew, which
made landfall over Haiti early this morning. Please refer to the
section above for details. The convection related to Matthew
covers the area between 67W-77W. Isolated showers and gentle to
moderate easterly winds prevail across the remainder of the basin.
Expect during the next 24-48 hours for Matthew to continue moving
north through the Windward Passage and entering eastern Cuba. A
strong tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean by Friday
with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

The eye of Hurricane Matthew made landfall this morning over the
coasts of Les Anglais as a category 4. Hurricane conditions will
continue across Haiti today with tropical storm conditions across
the remainder of the island. Expected rainfall amounts of 15 to
25 inches across most of the island, with isolated amounts of up
to 40 inches. These rainfall amounts could produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides. The combination of a
dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise
water levels by as much as 7 to 10 ft along the south coast of
Haiti with amounts of 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf of Gonave, and 1 to 3
ft along the south coast of the Dominican Republic. Please see the
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/
WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Hurricane Matthew is moving north across the western Caribbean
approaching the western Atlantic. Tropical Storm Nicole has
developed this morning over the west-central portion of the basin
while a strong tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles
with abundant convection. Please refer to the section above for
details about these features. A surface trough extends across the
Florida Peninsula into the west Atlantic from 29N81W to 31N78W
with isolated convection mainly west of 78W. The proximity of
Matthew is enhancing convection across the Bahamas south of 26N
between 71W-78W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence
of a surface ridge anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near
27N41W. Expect for Matthew to enter the west Atlantic by early
Wednesday and continue moving north-northwest across the Bahamas
and approaching the Florida Peninsula through the end of the week.
T.S. Nicole will move northwest over the west Atlantic during the
next 24-48 hours while the tropical wave will approach the Lesser
Antilles with convection.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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