[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041151
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 17.8N 74.4W at 04/0900 UTC or
about 30 nm south of Tiburon, Haiti and about 145 nm south of
the eastern tip of Cuba moving north at 8 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 934 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125
kt with gusts to 150 kt. Scattered to numerous strong convection
is within 90 nm of the center over the south semicircle.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 150
nm of the center over the north semicircle and within 210 nm of
the center over the remainder of the south semicircle, and from
14N-21N between 67W-71W, including Hispaniola, western Jamaica,
and eastern Cuba. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.

A 1012 mb surface low is centered near 23N60W that nearly
coincides with a mid-level area of low pressure. Although this
system remains fairly organized, the satellite images indicate
that the low level circulation is elongated and the low does
not have a well-defined center. However, only a slight increase
in organization of this system would result in the formation of
a tropical depression during the next day or two. There is a
high chance of tropical development during the next 48 hours as
it moves northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 20N-25N between 55W-60W.
Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave extends from 15N46W to 8N52W moving west-northwest
at near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is moving through an
area between two upper ridges enhancing scattered moderate to
strong convection within 180 nm southeast of the wave axis,
within 270 nm northwest of the wave axis south of 15N, and
within 60/75 nm of a line from 16N38W to 2N45W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from a 1009 mb low inland over west
Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 12N16W to 9N19W
where the ITCZ begins and continues along 4N32W to 7N43W.
Clusters of scattered moderate convection are within 150 nm
either side of the ITCZ between 25W-36W and within 250 nm either
side of the ITCZ between 36W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper trough extends over the southeast CONUS into the
central Gulf from west Georgia to the Yucatan peninsula. An
upper ridge extends across Mexico to over the west Gulf while
the upper ridge associated with Hurricane Matthew extends over
the far southeast Gulf generating isolated showers and
thunderstorms north of 27N east of 85W to over the north portion
of the Florida peninsula. A weak surface trough is along the
west side of the upper trough extending from 27N94W to 23N94W.
Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are from
22N-29N between 89W-95W. The surface trough will gradually
dissipate through today. A surface ridge will build across the
eastern CONUS into the northwest Gulf tonight through early
Wednesday. Winds and seas will increase over the east Gulf
Wednesday through the end of the week as Hurricane Matthew moves
northward across the Bahamas and off or near the east coast of
Florida.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The primary concern this morning is Hurricane Matthew moving
north across Hispaniola and toward eastern Cuba. See Special
Features above. An upper ridge dominates most of the Caribbean
this morning with the upper trough over the Gulf of Mexico
extends south to over the Yucatan peninsula covering the far
west Caribbean. Diffluence associated with the upper ridge is
generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
east of Hurricane Matthew north of 16N between 62W-67W including
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Hurricane Matthew is
expected to track north through late tonight before turning to
the north-northwest Wednesday. This will take Matthew toward
eastern Cuba later today, then will continue away from the
Caribbean Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

The eye of Hurricane Matthew is approaching the southwest
peninsula of Haiti this morning. The outer rainbands of
Hurricane Matthew are continue to move across the island
bringing numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Hurricane
conditions are expected to be across portions of Haiti this
morning with tropical storm conditions across the remainder of
Haiti and over portions of the Dominican Republic. Expected
rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches across the island with
isolated amounts of up to 40 inches. These rainfall amounts
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The
combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive
waves could raise water levels by as much as 7 to 10 ft along
the south coast of Haiti with amounts of 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf
of Gonave, and 1 to 3 ft along the south coast of the Dominican
Republic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A main concern this morning is Hurricane Matthew moving north
across the north/central Caribbean. See Special Features above.
The upper trough over the eastern CONUS is supporting a cold
front over the northwest Atlantic with a stationary front
extending to 31N76W where a surface trough continues along
29N79W to over the Florida peninsula near Melbourne. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are east of the surface
trough from 25N-32N between 69W-78W. An upper ridge dominates
the west Atlantic east of 60W and is associated with Hurricane
Matthew. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south
of a line from 25N78W to 22N68W. An upper trough over the far
east Atlantic is supporting a dissipating front to 31N29W with a
surface trough continuing to 30N35W. This frontal boundary is
splitting a surface ridge that dominates the remainder of the
central and east Atlantic, anchored by a 1026 mb high northeast
of the Azores and and 1021 mb high near 28N48W. Hurricane
Matthew is expected to move out of the Caribbean early Wednesday
with conditions over the Turks and Caicos to begin to
deteriorate later today. Matthew is expected to track north-
northwest Wednesday with a gradually turn to the northwest
Wednesday night. This will take Matthew near or over the
southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and Wednesday and
approach the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night. Matthew will
move north of the discussion area late Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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