[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 17.4N 74.5W at 04/0600 UTC or
about 52 nm south of Tiburon, Haiti and about 143 nm west-
southwest of Port au Prince Haiti moving north at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Scattered to numerous
strong convection is from 15N-18N between 73W-77W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 13N-19N
between 66W-78W, including Hispaniola and western Jamaica. See
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

A 1012 mb surface low is centered near 23N60W that nearly
coincides with a mid-level area of low pressure. This system has
become better organized and has a medium chance of tropical
development during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwest
to northwest at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 20N-25N between 55W-60W. Please see
the latest Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave extends from 13N44W to 5N50W moving west 5 to 10
kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is moving through an area
between two upper ridges enhancing clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection that covers the area from
7N-16N between 40W-56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from a 1010 mb low over west Africa
into the east Tropical Atlantic near 12N16W to 8N19W where the
ITCZ begins and continues along 4N27W to 5N38W. Clusters of
scattered maturate to isolated strong convection are from 1N-5N
between 34W-42W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are
1N-4N between 26W-34W and from 5N-8N between 31W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper trough extends over the southeast CONUS into the
central Gulf from Alabama to the Yucatan peninsula. An upper
ridge extends across Mexico to over the west Gulf while the
upper ridge associated with Hurricane Matthew extends over the
far east Gulf generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms north of 26N east of 85W to over the north portion
of the Florida peninsula and south of 25N east of 84W through
the Straits of Florida, including the Florida Keys. A weak
surface trough is along the west side of the upper trough
extending from 26N93W to 21N95W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are from 22N-26N between 89W-91W. The surface
trough will gradually dissipate through Tuesday. A surface ridge
will build across the eastern CONUS into the northwest Gulf
Tuesday night through early Wednesday. Winds and seas will
increase over the east Gulf wednesday through the end of the
week as Hurricane Matthew moves across the Bahamas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The primary concern tonight is Hurricane Matthew moving north
toward the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba. See Special Features
above. An upper ridge dominates most of the Caribbean tonight
with the upper trough over the Gulf of Mexico extends south to
over the Yucatan peninsula covering the far west Caribbean. The
upper trough is generating isolated showers and thunderstorms
within 60 nm along the coast of the Yucatan north of 19N.
Diffluence associated with the upper ridge is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms inland and within
90 nm along the south coast of Cuba east of 80W and east of
Hurricane Matthew north of a line from 14N60W to 17N66W
including the Lesser Antilles to Puerto Rico. Hurricane Matthew
is expected to track north through late Tuesday night before
turning to the north-northwest Wednesday. This will take Matthew
toward southwestern Haiti tonight and Tuesday morning, then near
eastern Cuba late Tuesday, and move near or over portions of the
southeastern and central Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

The outer rainbands of Hurricane Matthew are currently moving
across the island bringing numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Haiti
overnight with tropical storm conditions to reach portions of
the Dominican Republic before morning. Expected rainfall amounts
of 15 to 25 inches across the island with isolated amounts of up
to 40 inches. These rainfall amounts could produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides. The combination of a
dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could
raise water levels by as much as 7 to 10 ft along the south
coast of Haiti with amounts of 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf of Gonave,
and 1 to 3 ft along the south coast of the Dominican Republic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A main concern tonight is Hurricane Matthew moving north across
the central Caribbean. See Special Features above. The upper
trough over the eastern CONUS is supporting a cold front over
the northwest Atlantic with a stationary front extending to
31N75W where a surface trough continues along 29N79W to over the
Florida peninsula near Melbourne. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are southeast of the surface trough from 25N-32N
between 69W-80W. An upper ridge dominates the west Atlantic east
of 60W and is associated with Hurricane Matthew. An upper trough
over the far east Atlantic is supporting a frontal boundary to
31N29W with a surface trough continuing along 29N37W to 31N41W.
This frontal boundary is splitting a surface ridge that
dominates the remainder of the central and east Atlantic,
anchored by a 1025 mb high north of the Azores and and 1021 mb
high near 26N37W. Hurricane Matthew is expected to move out of
the Caribbean early Wednesday with conditions over the Turks and
Caicos to begin to deteriorate Tuesday. Matthew is expected to
track north-northwest across the Bahama islands Wednesday
through Thursday night. Matthew will move north of the
discussion area late Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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