[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1241 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
08N17W to 06N24W to 07N30W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
axis extends from 07N30W to 07N43W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 03N-07N between 09W-15W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 02N-10N between 18W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad middle to upper level troughing is over the offshore waters
of the SW North Atlc and eastern US seaboard supporting a cold
front extending across the southern Florida peninsula into the
eastern Gulf waters near 27N82W. The front dissipates to 26N89W
then becomes a dissipating stationary front to 24N96W to 19N95W.
Most moisture and cloudiness is noted across the west-central and
SW Gulf waters with possible isolated showers occurring S of 26N W
of 91W. With the front weakening...generally gentle to moderate NE
to E winds prevails across the basin this evening with the
exception of northerly winds W of the dissipating front across the
SW Gulf waters. Surface ridging to the north across much of the
eastern CONUS will slide gradually E through Sunday and anchor
across the Carolinas Sunday night into early Monday. On Sunday...
southerly return flow across the western Gulf will gradually
increase into fresh to strong levels as an area of low pressure
ejects out of the Rockies into the central Plains and moves N-NE
into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest by Monday. The associated
cold front will emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by late
Monday night into Tuesday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Subtle upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over
portions of the central Caribbean as NW flow aloft persists over
the NW Caribbean and generally westerly flow aloft elsewhere E of
72W. At the surface...moderate to fresh E-NE winds prevail with
most isolated convection occurring S of 16N between 65W-88W. This
overall pattern is forecast to persist through early Monday. By
Monday night...strong high pressure will be anchored across the SW
North Atlc to the north providing fresh to strong NE winds across
the adjacent coastal waters of Hispaniola and through the Windward
Passage region.

...HISPANIOLA...
A surface trough extends from the northern coast of the island
near 20N72W to 24N70W providing focus for isolated showers and
tstms generally across the SW North Atlc adjacent coastal waters
this evening. Otherwise...W-NW flow aloft prevails...however the
surface troughing is expected to remain across the region through
Sunday night providing the increased possibility of isolated
showers and tstms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level trough
progressing eastward offshore of the Carolinas and SE CONUS
supporting a cold front analyzed from 32N71W SW to the Florida
peninsula near 27N80W. Widely scattered showers and possible
isolated tstms are occurring generally N of 25N between 66W and
the front in an area of maximum low-level convergence in the
vicinity of and to the east of the front. Fresh northerly winds
will follow in wake of the front through Sunday as high pressure
builds in behind the front. Across the central Atlc...a middle to
upper level trough is noted in the vicinity of 33N40W with the
associated stationary front analyzed from 32N40W to 28N42W to
25N50W to 20N60W to a surface trough analyzed along 71W. Most
active convection is associated with the mid-level dynamics and
troughing with scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring from
25N-37N between 30W-41W. Similar convection is occurring at the
western extent of the front in association with the surface trough
from 19N-24N between 64W-73W. To the SE of the frontal
boundary...a surface trough is analyzed from 24N41W into a 1012 mb
low near 23N40W into a 1011 mb low near 17N40W to 10N46W. Isolated
showers and tstms are noted from 13N-20N between 35W-41W.
Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high centered
near 33N29W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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