[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271107
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
607 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N11W to
04N21W to 07N31W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 07N31W to 08N45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 03N-08N between 10W-18W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N-11N between 18W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad middle to upper level troughing is over the offshore waters
of the SW North Atlc and eastern US seaboard supporting a cold
front extending across the southern Florida peninsula into the
eastern Gulf waters near 26N82W. The front weakens to 25N86W.
Most moisture and cloudiness however is noted across the western
Gulf waters with possible isolated showers occurring S of 27N W
of 90W focused on a weak surface trough analyzed from 19N93W to
23N98W. With the front weakening...generally gentle to moderate
NE to E winds prevail across the basin this morning with the
exception of northerly winds W of the surface trough across the
SW Gulf waters. Surface ridging to the north across much of the
eastern CONUS will gradually slide E through Sunday and anchor
across the Carolinas Sunday night into early Monday. On Sunday...
southerly return flow across the western Gulf will increase into
fresh to strong levels as an area of low pressure ejects out of
the Rockies into the central Plains and moves N-NE into the
northern Plains/Upper Midwest by Monday. The associated cold front
will emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by late Monday
night into Tuesday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Subtle broad upper level troughing is noted on water vapor
imagery over the northern Caribbean waters as NW to W flow aloft
persists this morning. At the surface...moderate to fresh E-NE
winds prevail with most isolated convection occurring S of 15N.
This overall pattern is forecast to persist through early Monday.
By Monday night...strong high pressure will be anchored across the
SW North Atlc to the north providing fresh to strong NE winds
across the adjacent coastal waters of Hispaniola and through the
Windward Passage region.

...HISPANIOLA...
A surface trough extends from the NW coast of the island near
20N73W to 24N70W providing focus for widely scattered showers and
tstms generally across the SW North Atlc adjacent coastal waters
this morning. Otherwise...W-NW flow aloft prevails...with the
surface troughing expected to remain across the region through
Sunday night providing the increased possibility of isolated
showers and tstms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level trough
progressing eastward offshore of the Carolinas supporting a cold
front analyzed from 32N69W SW to the Florida peninsula near
27N80W. Widely scattered showers and possible isolated tstms are
occurring generally N of 26N between 66W and the front in an area
of maximum low-level convergence in the vicinity of and to the
east of the front. Fresh northerly winds will follow in wake of
the front through Sunday as high pressure builds in behind the
front. To the SE...a surface trough is analyzed from the NW coast
of Hispaniola near 20N73W to 24N70W. The troughing is providing
focus for scattered showers and isolated tstms from 20N-26N
between 63W-71W. Across the central Atlc...a middle to upper
level trough is noted in the vicinity of 33N39W extending S to a
broad base near 20N42W. The associated stationary front is analyzed
from 32N39W to 28N41W to 26N44W becoming a dissipating stationary
front to meandering SW to 21N59W. Most active convection is
associated with the mid-level dynamics and troughing previously
mentioned with scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring
from 26N-37N between 30W-40W. To the SE of the frontal
boundary...a surface trough is analyzed from the front near 28N41W
into a 1012 mb low centered near 23N41W. The surface troughing
continues to the south with a 1010 mb low centered near 18N39W and
boundary extending SW to another low...1009 mb centered near
12N48W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring from 13N-22N
between 33W-40W. Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high
centered near 34N28W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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