[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Senegal and Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 06N20W and 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from
06N22W, to 07N34W and 06N46W. Convective precipitation: Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N southward from 33W
eastward. Isolated moderate from 10N southward between 33W and
40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is moving from the eastern U.S.A. into the
western sections of the Atlantic Ocean. This trough is supporting
a cold front that is passing through 32N74W to Florida near
28N82W. The cold front is dissipating from Florida near 28N82W,
into the Gulf of Mexico near 27N89W. A dissipating stationary
front continues from 27N89W to 27N95W and 26N97W. A surface trough
is along 24N97W 20N95W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Convective precipitation in the Atlantic Ocean: rainshowers are
possible to the NW of the line that passes through 32N67W 26N70W
21N76W, including in the Straits of Florida. Convective
precipitation in the Gulf of Mexico: rainshowers are possible in
broken to overcast multilayered clouds from 27N southward from 88W
westward.

A surface ridge passes through the coastal plains of Mexico, into
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds
are present now, and gale-force winds are forecast to continue to
be present, for the next 24 hours or so, in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico.
Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: light rain in Harlingen. MVFR in Alice. from LOUISIANA to
FLORIDA: VFR/no ceilings.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. An
upper level ridge extends from NW Venezuela into the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough is along 11N74W at the coast of Colombia, to
11N77W, to 13N81W. Broad surface low pressure covers the Caribbean
Sea from 17N southward. Convective precipitation: Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 16N southward
between 63W and 80W. Similar precipitation is in Nicaragua.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
26/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 2.04 in
Curacao, 0.23 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.06 in Guadeloupe and
in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 0.02 in Veracruz in
Mexico.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the entire area.
A stationary front is in the Atlantic Ocean, from 75 nm at its
closest point to 150 nm at its farthest-away point, to the north
of Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from
19N to 24N between 63W and SE Cuba. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere in the coastal waters/coastal areas of Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, VFR/no
ceiling. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling.
few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling at 1600
feet. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago and
Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the first half of day one. A trough
will move to a position that is just to the west of the area
during the second half of day one, and it will bring SW wind
flow. The trough will move across Hispaniola during day two.
Expect NW wind flow during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for
500 MB shows that W-to-SW wind flow will move across the area
during day one. A trough will move into the Windward Passage,
giving SW wind flow. The trough will move across Hispaniola during
day two, bringing N wind flow to the area. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 mb shows that SE wind flow will start across the area at
the beginning of day one, while an anticyclonic circulation center
is to the north of Hispaniola in the Atlantic Ocean. The SE wind
flow will become S wind flow as the anticyclonic circulation
center moves eastward and away from the area completely. Southerly
wind flow cover the eastern half of the island, while SW wind flow
will cover the western half of the island. The trough will settle
directly on top of Hispaniola at the end of day one. The wind flow
that will move across the area during day two will be NW for much
of the day, ending with N and NE wind flow. The trough will have
moved to the east of the area completely by the end of day two.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N40W to 26N48W, 25N51W, to
20N60W, 21N69W, and between the SE Bahamas and northern Haiti near
21N73W. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible in the
remainder of the area within 60 nm on either side of the line from
32N41W, to 26N47W, 22N54W, and 21N60W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N43W to 26N43W to 20N50W.
A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 23N41W. A surface trough is
along 18N39W, to a 1011 mb low pressure center that is near
16N41W, to 12N45W. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong within 90 nm on either side of 24N43W
28N39W 32N37W. Isolated moderate within 30 nm to 60 nm on either
side of 13N43W 16N40W 18N38W. Rainshowers are possible in the
remainder of the area from 07N to 17N between 40W and 50W, and
from 10N to 13N between 50W and 60W.

An upper level trough is along 24N29W 16N32W, to 08N32W. A
surface trough is along 23N28W 24N37W. Convective precipitation:
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 22N to 26N
between 25W and 31W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers are from 10N to 26N between Africa and 34W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 26N
northward from 20W eastward. The cyclonic wind flow is associated
with a trough that is outside the area. The trough is supporting
surface troughs that also are outside the area. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible in the area of upper level
cyclonic wind flow.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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