[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231047
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
547 AM EST WED NOV 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Otto is centered near 10.9N 80.4W at 23/0900 UTC or
about 235 nm east-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua and about 185
nm east-northeast of Limon, Costa Rica moving west-northwest at 4
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous strong
convection is from 9N-12N between 79W and 82W and from 13N-16N
between 78W and 82W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
from 9N-16N between 77W and 83W. Please see latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 7N12W and then along 5N16W to 4N21W. The ITCZ
begins near 4N21W and continues to 5N25W; it resumes west of a
surface trough near 6N28W and continues to 8N40W to 10N61W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 2N-10N east of 30W.
Isolated showers are within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ axis.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dry and stable airmass remains over the Gulf of Mexico, which
continue to support fair weather along with a surface ridge over
the eastern CONUS that extends S-SW across the basin. The latest
scatterometer data show gentle to moderate NE-E flow E of 90W and
moderate to locally fresh SE flow W of 90W. The surface ridge
currently anchored over West Virginia and Georgia will move NE-E
through this afternoon, thus providing return flow ahead of the
next cold front to enter the NW Gulf waters during the early evening.
The front will stall from Louisiana to southern Texas Thursday
near sunrise and then transition back to a cold front on Friday
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main concern in the basin continues to be Hurricane Otto
located in the SW Caribbean. Please see Special Features section
above for further details. A stationary front extends from the
central Atlantic across the eastern Dominican Republic to 16N71W.
Latest scatterometer data indicate that the former low at the tail
of the stationary front weakened to a surface trough that extends
from 18N73W to 14N74W. Scattered moderate convection associated
with the trough is from 15N-18N between 71W and 76W. Scattered to
isolated showers are across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and Jamaica
associated with the front and the surface trough. The center of Otto
will move onshore within the hurricane warning area on Thursday,
and reach the Pacific coast of southern Nicaragua or northern
Costa Rica Thursday night or early Friday. Outer rain bands from
Otto are expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8
inches over San Andres and Providencia islands, and the higher
terrain of central and western Panama and southern Costa Rica
through today. Total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated
amounts of 15 to 20 inches, can be expected across northern Costa
Rica and southern Nicaragua through Thursday. These rains will
likely result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. The
stationary front is expected to dissipate by Thursday near
sunrise. High pressure building over the west Atlantic will
continue to support fresh to strong northeast winds over the
northern central basin through Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic across the
eastern tip of Dominican Republic into the north-central
Caribbean. This front and a surface trough just to the south of
Haiti are supporting scattered to isolated showers across the
Island. Showers associated with these features will continue today
through early Thursday morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough N of 30N and W of 50W continue to
support a stationary front that extends from 30N56W to 22N62W to
the eastern Dominican Republic near 19N68W and into the north-
central Caribbean. Isolated showers are within 90 nm either side
of the weakening front. N of 25N west and east of the front
surface ridging and fair weather conditions prevail. A middle to
upper level low centered near 22N34W continue to reflect at the
surface as a trough that extends from 22N35W to 26N36W, which
support scattered showers and isolated tstms from 22N to 26N
between 23W and 36W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated
tstms are SE of the trough from 11N-17N between 28W and 32W.
Scattered to isolated showers are over the Cape Verde Islands and
adjacent waters. The stationary front will weaken thorough
tonight and dissipate by Thu morning. High pressure shifting east
from the Gulf of Mexico and eastern CONUS will strengthen
northeast winds across the central and southern Bahamas today
through Friday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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