[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Otto was downgraded to Tropical Storm at 23/1200 UTC.
Tropical Storm Otto is centered near 11.1N 81.0W at 23/1800 UTC
or about 135 nm east-northeast of Limon, Costa Rica and about
175 nm east-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua moving west-
northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt.
Scattered moderate with embedded clusters of isolated strong
convection are from 9N-13N west of 79W to inland over Costa Rica
and Nicaragua. Please see latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the
full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 8N13W to 5N20W where it transitions to the ITCZ
and continues along 4N24W to east of a surface trough near
6N28W, then resumes west of the trough near 8N33W along 7N38W
10N46W to 11N61W. A surface trough embedded within the ITCZ
extends from 11N29W to 6N31W with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from 9N-11N between 27W-31W. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are within 200 nm along
the coast of west Africa south of 7N west of 7W, from 7N-9N
between 15W-20W, and from 6N-10N between 40W-47W. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection are from the ITCZ to 15N between
54W and the Windward Islands.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The dry and stable airmass that has dominated the the Gulf of
Mexico for the last several days is beginning to be replaced by
a more active scenario. An upper trough over the Central CONUS
has moved into the west Gulf supporting a cold front that at
23/1500 UTC extends along the coast of Texas generating numerous
showers and scattered thunderstorms west of a line from
Louisiana near 30N93W to Texas near 28N96W. A surface ridge
anchored over New England extends south over the Gulf east of
the front and is shifting eastward ahead of the cold front. the
cold front is expected to weaken from southeast Louisiana to
south Texas Thursday morning. A second cold front will move into
the northwest Gulf Friday overtaking the stalled front then
pushing east from northeast Florida to south Texas Saturday
morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The primary concern this afternoon is Tropical Storm Otto.
Please see Special Features above. The tail end of a stationary
front that extends from the central Atlantic transitions to a
surface trough over the Dominican Republic near 19N69W
continuing to 16N71W. Scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms are inland over the north portion of Hispaniola
with isolated showers dotting the northeast Caribbean north of
14N east of 72W. The low from yesterday transitioned overnight
to a surface trough that now extends from 17N74W to northeast of
Otto near 14N78W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 150 nm either side of this surface
trough. Easterly trade winds are banking isolated showers in the
Gulf of Honduras. Otto is forecasted to turn toward the west
with an increase in forward speed tonight and Thursday where it
will re-intensify to hurricane before making landfall in
southeast Nicaragua. The front associated surface trough will
dissipate by Thursday while the second surface trough continues
westward.

...HISPANIOLA...

The stationary front extends from the central Atlantic then
transitions to a surface trough over the Dominican Republic near
19N69W continuing into the Caribbean and is generating scattered
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms over the north
portion of the island this afternoon with isolated showers
possible over the remainder of the island. Lingering moisture
coupled with the close proximity of the front/trough could
continue to give the island showers and possible thunderstorms
through Thursday with some clearing on Friday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper ridge over the Caribbean extends a ridge over the west
Atlantis south of 30N. A surface ridge anchored over New England
extends over the far west Atlantic with dry, stable air north of
20N west of 55W. A broad upper trough covers the remainder of
the west into the central Atlantic north of 30N supporting a
cold front to 31N53W where it continues as a stationary front
through 25N68W to 22N64W where it dissipates over to the
Dominican Republic near 19N69W, a surface trough then continue
into the Caribbean. Scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms are south of 20N to over Hispaniola west of the
front to 73W. An upper low in the east Atlantic is centered near
22N32W supporting a surface trough that extends from 25N33W to
19N35W. Clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are from 19N-25N between 28W-34W. An upper ridge to the east of
the upper low is providing difflunce aloft to generate scattered
showers from 13N-25N east of 30W to the coast of Africa
including the Capo Verde Islands. A surface ridge dominates the
east Atlantic north of 26N east of 45W anchored by a 1031 mb
high over the Azores. The stationary front will weaken thorough
tonight and dissipating by Friday. Surface ridge over the west
Atlantic will prevail through Friday. A cold front will move
into the northwest waters Saturday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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