[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 AM EST WED NOV 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Otto is centered near 10.7N 79.8W at 23/0300 UTC or
about 250 nm east-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua and about
200 nm east-northeast of Limon, Costa Rica moving west-northwest at
3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous strong
convection is from 9N-12N between 79W and 82W. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere from 9N-16N between 78W and 83W. Please
see latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 7N12W along 6N20W to 7N25W. The ITCZ begins near
9N38W and continues to 10N50W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 2N-12N between east of 32W. Isolated showers are within
120 nm either side of the ITCZ axis.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dry and stable airmass remains over the Gulf of Mexico, which
continue to support fair weather along with a surface ridge over
the eastern CONUS that extends S-SW across the basin. The latest
scatterometer data show gentle to moderate NE-E flow E of 90W and
moderate to locally fresh SE flow W of 90W. The surface ridge
currently anchored over eastern Ohio will move NE-E through
Wednesday afternoon, thus providing return flow ahead of the next
cold front to enter the NW Gulf waters. The front will stall from
Louisiana to southern Texas Thursday near sunrise and then
transition back to a cold front on Friday night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main concern in the basin is Hurricane Otto located in
the SW Caribbean. Please see Special Features section above for
further details. A stationary front extends from the central
Atlantic across the Mona Passage near 18N67W to a 1009 mb low
near 14N72W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm
from the low center in the northern semicircle. Isolated showers
are within 150 nm from the low in the southern semicircle.
Scattered to isolated showers are across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico
and Jamaica associated with this front and low. The center of
Hurricane Otto is expected to move onshore within the hurricane
warning area in southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica on
Thursday. Outer rain bands from Otto are expected to produce
rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over San Andres and
Providencia islands, and the higher terrain of central and western
Panama and southern Costa Rica through today. Total rainfall of 6
to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 to 20 inches, can be
expected across northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua through
Thursday. These rains will likely result in life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides. The stationary front is expected to
dissipate by Thursday near sunrise. High pressure building over
the west Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong
northeast winds over the northern central basin through Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

The stationary front that extends from the central Atlantic
across the Mona Passage into the north-central Caribbean is
generating scattered to isolated showers across the island.
Showers associated with this front will continue to late Thursday
as the front dissipate near sunrise that day.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough N of 30N and W of 50W continue to
support a stationary front that extends from 30N56W along 23N62W
to the Mona Passage and into the north-central Caribbean. Isolated
showers are within 150 nm either side of the front. N of 26N west
and east of the front surface ridging and fair weather conditions
prevail. A middle to upper level low centered near 22N35W continue
to reflect at the surface as a trough that extends from 15N34W to
26N35W, which support scattered heavy showers and tstms from 13N
to 15N between 29W and 33W. Scattered showers are SE of the trough
from 06N-12N between 22W and 31W. The stationary front will
weaken thorough Wednesday night and dissipate by Thu morning. High
pressure shifting east from the Gulf of Mexico and eastern CONUS
will strengthen northeast winds across the central and southern
Bahamas today through Friday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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