[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222349
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Otto was upgraded to Hurricane at 22/2100 UTC.
Hurricane Otto is centered near 10.6N 79.7W at 23/0000 UTC or
about 255 nm east-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua and about
200 nm east of Limon, Costa Rica moving west at 2 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 9N-12N between 78W-81W. Scattered
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 150 nm of
a line from 17N76W along 14N80W to 9N81W. Please see latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 6N11W along 5N14W to 5N18W where it transitions to
the ITCZ and continues along 7N22W to 10N28W, then resumes near
14N30W along 10N43W to 12N58W. Clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection are from 8N-12N between 25W-35W.
Clusters of scattered moderate convection are within 180 nm
south of the monsoon trough between 12W-18W and within 60 nm of
a line from 4N22W to 7N30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dry and stable airmass remains over most of the Gulf of Mexico
this evening, the exception is some tropical moisture being
advected over the far northwest Gulf. An upper trough is over
the Central CONUS dipping south into north Mexico and is
supporting the next front expected in the Gulf. Currently a
surface ridge anchored over the easter CONUS extends south over
the Gulf and is anchored by a pair of 1029 mb highs, one over
Indiana and one over Ohio. The surface ridge will weaken and
shift east through the remainder of the week. A cold front will
move into the north Gulf Wednesday night, become stationary,
then lift north again late on Thursday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The primary concern this evening is Hurricane Otto. Please see
Special Features above. A stationary front extends from the
central Atlantic across western Puerto Rico along 17N69W to a
weak 1008 mb low near 15N73W. Scattered showers and possible
isolated thunderstorms are within 90/120 nm of this front and
low. Hurricane Otto is expected to move west or west-northwest
over the next couple of days approaching west Costa Rica and
south Nicaragua Thursday. The front in the Caribbean is expected
to dissipate by Wednesday. High pressure building over the west
Atlantic will support fresh to strong northeast winds over a
large area north of Hurricane Otto between Hispaniola and Costa
Rica through the end of the week.

...HISPANIOLA...

The stationary front that extends from the central Atlantic
across western Puerto Rico into the Caribbean is generating
scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms over
portions of the island this evening. Lingering moisture coupled
with the close proximity of the front could continue to give the
island showers and possible thunderstorms through Thursday, with
the highest concentration over the Dominican Republic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper ridge over the Caribbean extends a ridge axis across
the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula to over the the east CONUS
covering the west Atlantic west of 72W. A broad upper trough
covers the remainder of the west into the central Atlantic
supporting a stationary front that extends through 32N54W along
26N61W into the Caribbean across western Puerto Rico. Scattered
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 75 nm
east of the front. A surface ridge anchored over the eastern
CONUS extends over the far west Atlantic with dry, stable air
north of 22N west of the stationary front. The upper ridge
in the Caribbean extends a second ridge axis into the central
Atlantic across the Lesser Antilles and is providing difflunce
aloft to generate possible scattered showers within 120/150 nm
of a line from 29N47W to the Virgin Islands near 18N63W. An
upper low in the east Atlantic is centered near 23N35W
supporting a surface trough that extends from 25N36W through a
1011 mb low near 19N35W continuing to 13N33W. Clusters of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 150 nm
either side of the surface trough. An upper ridge to the east of
the upper low is providing difflunce aloft to generate scattered
showers from 20N-27N between 24W-32W. A surface ridge dominates
the east Atlantic north of 26N east of 50W anchored by a 1032 mb
high about north of the Azores. The stationary front will weaken
thorough Wednesday night and dissipate by Friday. High pressure
shifting east from the Gulf of Mexico and eastern CONUS will
strengthen northeast winds across the central and southern
Bahamas tonight through Friday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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