[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1003 mb low pressure center is in the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea near 11N80W, off the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa
Rica, Panama, and Colombia. Convective precipitation: Widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong covers the
SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 15N southward from 72W
westward. The precipitation pattern has become comparatively
better organized during the last few hours. It appears that a
tropical depression or a tropical storm may be forming. It will be
necessary to start advisories later this morning about this
cyclone if this development trend continues. The chance of
formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is
high.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea near
10N17W to 09N17W. The ITCZ continues from 09N17W to 07N24W and
08N30W. The ITCZ continues again from 10N45W to 09N53W and 07N58W
along the coast of Guyana. A surface trough is along 18N34W 15N38W
10N42W. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
from 05N to 09N between 10W and 14W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 07N to 10N between 24W and 28W. Rainshowers
are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 40W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through southern Louisiana, into the
western sections of the Gulf of Mexico, and eventually into the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The information about the cold
front and gale-force winds is in the SPECIAL FEATURES section.

Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the
eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the
Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: VFR/no ceilings. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Lafayette and Patterson.
from MISSISSIPPI to FLORIDA: VFR/no ceilings.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A deep layer trough passes through the area of Bermuda, across the
Bahamas and Cuba, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A cold
front follows the location of the upper level trough, from Bermuda
to the Bahamas, to NW Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, into the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation in the
Atlantic Ocean: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either
side of the line that passes through 32N62W to 27N70W to 23N80W at
the coast of Cuba. Rainshowers are possible in the Gulf of Mexico
from 24N southward from 90W westward.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow covers the area to the east of the line
that runs from the Windward Passage toward the Gulf of Honduras.
An upper level ridge runs from the coast of Venezuela near 69W,
northwestward to SE Cuba.

The 24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
21/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.68 in Curacao,
and 0.01 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the entire area. An
upper level ridge extends from the coast of Venezuela near 69W,
northwestward to SE Cuba. Please refer also to the section with
the title FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA for more
details. An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean
near Bermuda, across the Bahamas and Cuba, into the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea. A stationary front passes through the Mona
Passage, into the central sections of the Caribbean Sea.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong across
the island, and in the coastal waters/coastal areas. Media sources
have been reporting flooding and landslides in the Dominican
Republic during the last few weeks, since 07 November.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, at 21/0200
UTC: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona at 21/0000 UTC:
MVFR. ceiling at 1400 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: VFR/no ceiling.
Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling at 1600 feet. few
cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto Plata: VFR. few
cumulonimbus clouds.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours, with a ridge in the
SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB
shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during day one.
A ridge will be in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. A trough
will approach Hispaniola from the NW. Anticyclonic wind flow will
cover the Dominican Republic at the end of day one. A trough will
be across Haiti at the end of day one. Cyclonic wind flow will
span Hispaniola during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb
shows that cyclonic wind flow, from an inverted trough, will span
Hispaniola during most of day one. NE wind flow with a ridge will
move across the area at the end of day one. Expect more NE wind
flow, with the ridge, for day two.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 24N37W cyclonic circulation
center, to 14N44W to 06N at the coast near the border of French
Guiana and Suriname. A surface trough is along 35W/36W from 23N
to 28N. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 20N to 30N between Africa and 42W. Isolated
moderate within 60 nm to 90 nm on either side of the line 10N40W
09N49W 06N55W. Rainshowers are possible also from 10N northward
between 20W and 50W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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