[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1006 mb surface low continues to meander over the SW Caribbean
located near 11N80W. Although the system's circulation continues
to be defined, the associated thunderstorm activity is not
sufficient to be designated as a tropical cyclone at this time.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form during the next couple of days
while the low moves slowly and erratically. The latest Tropical
Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical
cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 13N17W to 11N21W where it transitions to the ITCZ
and continues along 08N29W to 11N43W to 09N60W. Isolated showers
are observed in the vicinity of the ITCZ boundary between 20W-
30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the southern Gulf, analyzed from
18N94W to 22N92W to 23N85W to 24N80W. High pressure prevails in
the wake of the front across the basin. Scatterometer data depicts
a moderate to fresh northeasterly flow across most of the basin
except the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche where fresh to
strong winds prevail. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow
will set up over the northwest Gulf late on Monday and persist
through Tuesday night ahead of the next cold front forecast to
enter the region on Wednesday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An area of low pressure continues to meander over the SW Caribbean.
Please see the Special Features section above for details. A cold
front is entering the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba extending
from 22N87W to 23N84W. The pressure gradient generated between the
high pressure behind this front and lower pressures across the
western Caribbean are supporting fresh to strong northerly winds
mainly west of 75W. A stationary front extends across the
northeast Caribbean waters from 15N72W to the Mona Passage near
19N67W. A recent Ascat pass depicts fresh northeast winds within
60 nm west of the frontal boundary and south of Hispaniola. A
cluster of moderate convection prevails along and in the vicinity
of the front from 13N-18N between 67W-72W. Expect for the cold
front to enter the western Caribbean this evening enhancing
winds/seas. This front will continue moving east through the next
48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

A stationary front extends across the Mona Passage with a cluster
of showers prevailing south of the island affecting the adjacent
waters. Some of this activity could move across the southern
portion of Dominican Republic. Similar activity will continue
through the next 24 hours as the front persists.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dry cold front extends from 24N80W to 31N68W. To the east,
another frontal system was analyzed as a stationary front from
19N67W to 24N59W then as a cold front from that point to 31N53W.
Isolated showers are observed in the vicinity of the stationary
part of the front affecting the western north of Puerto Rico. An
upper level low is reflected at the surface as a trough
that extends from 24N41W to 21N42W. Isolated showers prevail near
this feature. Another surface trough extends from 13N38W to
23N33W. Scattered showers are observed east of this trough between
20W-32W. Expect for the cold front in the west Atlantic to
continue moving east through the next 48 hours while the other
frontal system will dissipate. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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