[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211149
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
649 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression SIXTEEN developed at 21/0900 UTC in the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea, near 11.5N 79.4W, off the coasts of
Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia. The depression is
about 275 km/150 nm to the ESE of San Andres Island, and about 480
km/260 nm to the east of Bluefields in Nicaragua. T.D. SIXTEEN is
moving westward, or 270 degrees, 1 knot. The estimated minimum
pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30
knots with gusts to 40 knots. Please read the PUBLIC ADVISORIES
about Tropical Depression SIXTEEN, that are issued under the WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under the AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES about Tropical Depression SIXTEEN are issued
under the WMO header WTNT21 KNHC, and under the AWIPS header
MIATCMAT1. Convective precipitation: numerous strong within 100 nm
of the center in the N semicircle, and within 30 nm of the center
in the S semicircle. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
covers the rest of the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 15N
southward from 77W westward.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea near
10N14W to 09N17W. The ITCZ continues from 09N17W to 07N24W and
08N30W. The ITCZ continues again from 10N45W to 09N50W and 07N55W.
A surface trough is along 20N34W 15N38W 10N42W. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 04N to 08N
between 12W and 15W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 07N to 11N between 24W and 29W. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 10N southward from 40W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through southern Louisiana, into the
western sections of the Gulf of Mexico, and eventually into the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The information about the cold
front is in the section with the title: FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.

Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the
eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the
Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: IFR at the NAS Kingsville. LOUISIANA: MVFR in New Iberia.
LIFR, light rain, and fog in Patterson. in MISSISSIPPI and
ALABAMA: VFR/no ceilings. FLORIDA: LIFR at the Tampa Executive
Airport.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough passes through the area of Bermuda, across the
Bahamas and Cuba, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A cold
front follows the location of the upper level trough, from Bermuda
to the Bahamas, to NW Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, into the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation in the
Atlantic Ocean: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either
side of the line that passes through 32N62W to 28N67W to 22N78W
at the coast of Cuba. Rainshowers are possible in the Gulf of
Mexico from 25N southward from 90W westward.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow covers the area to the east of the line
that runs from the Windward Passage toward the Gulf of Honduras.
An upper level ridge runs from the coast of Venezuela near 69W,
northwestward to SE Cuba.

The 24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
21/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.68 in Curacao,
and 0.01 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the entire area. An
upper level ridge extends from the coast of Venezuela near 69W,
northwestward to SE Cuba. Please refer also to the section with
the title FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA for more
details. An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean
near Bermuda, across the Bahamas and Cuba, into the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea. A stationary front passes from the Atlantic
Ocean, through the Mona Passage, into the central sections of the
Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong across the island, and in the coastal waters/
coastal areas. Media sources have been reporting flooding and
landslides in the Dominican Republic during the last few weeks,
since 07 November.

A stationary front passes through 32N53W in the Atlantic Ocean,
to 25N57W, to 20N64W, and then through the Mona Passage, to 15N72W
in the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation in the Caribbean
Sea: scattered strong from 15N southward between 66W and 70W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 17N south between 70W
and 75W. Convective precipitation in the Caribbean Sea and in the
Atlantic Ocean: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
17N to 23N between 59W and 69W. Convective precipitation in the
Atlantic Ocean: isolated moderate within 150 nm on either side of
32N52W 27N56W 23N62W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona/Santo Domingo/La Romana: VFR. few
cumulonimbus clouds. Punta Cana: light rain. MVFR. ceiling at
1200 feet. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling at 1400 feet. Puerto Plata:
MVFR. ceiling at 1600 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours, with a ridge in the
SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB
shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during day one.
A ridge will be in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. A trough
will approach Hispaniola from the NW. Anticyclonic wind flow will
cover the Dominican Republic at the end of day one. A trough will
be across Haiti at the end of day one. Cyclonic wind flow will
span Hispaniola during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb
shows that cyclonic wind flow, from an inverted trough, will span
Hispaniola during most of day one. NE wind flow with a ridge will
move across the area at the end of day one. Expect more NE wind
flow, with the ridge, for day two.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 24N37W cyclonic circulation
center, to 14N44W to 06N at the coast near the border of French
Guiana and Suriname. A surface trough is along 35W/36W from 21N
to 28N. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 24N to 28N between 30W and 40W, and from 20N
northward between Africa and the line 30N27W 20N33W 10N44W.
Numerous strong from 06N to 08N between 54W and 56W. Isolated
moderate elsewhere from 06N to 12N between 40W and 55W.
Rainshowers are possible also from 10N northward between 20W and
50W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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