[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 12N16W to 9N22W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 8N33W 5N40W to 5N48W. A surface trough is
approaching the Lesser Antilles along 59W from 8N-17N with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 10N-14N
between 57W-61W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 8N-14N between 50W-53W. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are from 3N-11N between
10W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A remnant stationary front remains in the south Gulf extending
from a 1013 mb low inland over south Mexico near 18N94W north
along 21N93W 22N89W to 24N84W. Isolated showers are south of a
line from 25N85W 22N90W to 19N96W. Scattered showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms are east of surface trough that
extends from 29N89W 26N87W to 24N87W to across the Floria
peninsula and from 22N-26N west of 92W to inland over Mexico. A
surface ridge is building south over the Gulf anchored by a trio
of 1018 mb highs; one over south Mississippi, one off Florida
near 29N86W, and the third off southwest Louisiana near 29N93W.
The tail end of a cold front extends from the west Atlantic
across Florida between Vero Beach to Fort Myers. The cold front
will sink south and merge with the stationary front before
morning. The merged front will move out of the basin Tuesday
night. A new cold front will move into the northwest Gulf
Tuesday night, then stall and dissipate Wednesday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An elongated east/west upper ridge is anchored near 17N77W and
covers the Gulf of Mexico and the west Atlantic. At the surface
is a surface trough that extends from 16N80W along 13N82W to
11N82W generating scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms from 11N-17N between 76W-83W. The monsoon trough
is across the southwest Caribbean from Colombia near 11N75W
11N77W to across Costa Rica near 10N83W generating scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 12N between 74W-76W
and south of 11N west of 76W. A surface trough extends from the
Atlantic near 21N65W through the Mona Passage to 17N68W. The
remainder of the east Caribbean remains tranquil again tonight.
The surface trough trough will persist through the end of the
week where a broad low pressure is expected to develop by the
weekend. A weak cold front will move into the northwest
Caribbean late Tuesday night and stall from central Cuba to
Honduras by Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are beginning to dissipate
across the island tonight. Afternoon showers will continue over
the island Tuesday and Wednesday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean extends over the west
Atlantic west of 65W. At the surface is a weak cold front that
extends through 32N76W then across Florida near Vero Beach and
into the Gulf of Mexico. A deep layered low is over the west-
central Atlantic with the upper low near 30N55W and the surface
1013 mb low centered near 29N55W. An occluded front extends from
the surface low north beyond 32N53W with a cold front extending
south through 32N52W along 27N52W to 24N54W continuing as a
dissipating stationary front to 21N62W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are being generated by the upper low
north of 28N between 52W-57W and within 30 nm of 52W from 26N-
28N. An upper ridge to the east is providing diffluence aloft to
generate scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 150 nm of a line from 21N52W 27N48W to
beyond 32N48W. A surface trough extends from the Atlantic near
21N65W through the Mona Passage to 17N68W. A broad surface ridge
covers the east Atlantic anchored by a 1036 mb high about 600 nm
northeast of the Azores. The west Atlantic cold front will
continue east reaching from 32N72W to the southwest Bahamas by
wednesday morning then from Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos by
Thursday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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