[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EST MON NOV 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near
08N13W to 09N27W to 05N47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is present from 04N to 09N between 12W and 37W.

A surface trough curves from 09N58W to 15N58W to 20N54W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 07N to
12N between 47W and 59W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front crosses the NE Gulf from near Tampa FL at 27N82W to
26N86W. An old stationary front remains over the SW Gulf from
24N85W to 21N93W to 1012 mb low pres over the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec near 18N94W. Cloudiness and scattered showers are
present along and up to 150 nm NW of this boundary. A broad upper
ridge remains over the Gulf anchored in the Caribbean giving the
Gulf westerly flow aloft. This upper-level flow is advecting
tropical moisture over the NW Gulf and is generating cloudiness
and patchy light rain along and E of the Mexican gulf coast W of a
line from 26N93W to 22N96W to 21N96W. A surface ridge remains in
place along the coastline of the western Gulf from south Texas to
the southeastern portion of the Mexican state of Veracruz. The
front and low will still linger through tonight, then dissipate by
Tuesday evening. The cold front will push slowly SE and stretch
from the Straits of Florida to the NE Yucatan peninsula by Tuesday
evening, then finally shift east out of the Gulf on Wednesday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level ridge still resides over most of the Caribbean,
An upper-level trough approaching the extreme eastern Caribbean is
producing an area of upper-level convergence in the vicinity of
the Windward islands. The ridge is providing upper-level
divergence over the western Caribbean, which is fueling convection
associated with a surface troughing which runs from E of Costa
Rica near 10N82W to Jamaica. Numerous moderate and isolated strong
convection is seen from 10N to 14N from 80W to 83W. Scattered
moderate convection is found elsewhere from 09N to 15N between 77W
and 84W. The area of cloudiness and thunderstorms over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea is in association with a broad area of
low pressure that is gradually forming across the region.
Environmental conditions will be conducive for slow development
of this disturbance during the next several days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by late this week or over the weekend
while the area of low pressure drifts northward or northeastward.
A weak cold front will move into the NW Caribbean late Tuesday
night and stall over the Caribbean from central Cuba to Honduras
by Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough extends from the Atlantic near 22N63W over the
eastern tip of the island near 18N69W. Cloudiness and isolated
thunderstorms are present over the island, but cloudiness and
shower coverage are expected to decrease during the next couple of
days as the trough moves westward and weakens.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An occluded 1012 mb low is centered SE of Bermuda near 29N55W. An
associated cold front curves SE from31N51W to 25N53W to 24N63W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is evident along
and up to 120 nm SE of the front. A cold front is pushing SE off
the Florida coast 31N77W to 25N81W. The occluded low and
associated frontal boundaries will gradually weaken and drift N
during the next few days. The west Atlantic cold front will
continue east and reach from 32N66W to Hispaniola Wednesday night.
Otherwise, a broad surface ridge covers the Atlantic to the E of
45W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MCELROY
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