[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151132
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 8N13W along 6N19W to 7N24W where the ITCZ begins
and continues along 9N33W 7N49W to 8N55W. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are from 3N-7N between
10W-21W, from 7N-10N between 14W-18W, from 7N-10N between 46W-
50W, and from 7N-10N between 53W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A remnant stationary front in the south Gulf is beginning to
weaken from a 1015 mb low inland over south Mexico near 18N94W
north along 22N92W 23N88W to 24N85W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are south of 21N between 91W-95W. A surface trough
extends from southeast Mississippi near 29N89W to 26N87W.
Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are south
of 26N east of 86W across south Florida and from 21N-25N west of
92W to over Mexico. An upper trough is dipping south over the
east CONUS to the north Gulf coast supporting a cold front that
is currently moving across east Texas. The tail end of another
cold front extends from the west Atlantic across Florida near
West Palm Beach to just south of Naples to 25N83W. The Florida
cold front will sink south and merge with the eastern portion of
the stationary front this morning. The merged front will move
out of the basin tonight as the front over Texas enters the
northwest Gulf. This front will then stall and dissipate
Wednesday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An elongated east/west upper ridge is anchored near 16N76W and
covers the Gulf of Mexico and the west Atlantic. At the surface
is a surface trough that extends from 17N82W to 12N81W
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 11N-
17N between 74W-83W and south of 11N west of 79W. The monsoon
trough is across the southwest Caribbean from Colombia near
11N75W 11N78W to across Costa Rica near 9N84W generating
scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms south
of 11N between 74W-79W. The remainder of the east Caribbean
remains tranquil again this morning. A surface trough is
approaching the Lesser Antilles along 59W from 9N-16N with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 9N-14N between
58W-62W with the heavier activity moving over the Windward
Islands this morning. The east Caribbean surface trough will
persist through the end of the week where a broad low pressure
is expected to develop by the weekend. A weak cold front will
move into the northwest Caribbean late tonight and stall from
central Cuba to Honduras by Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough extends from the Atlantic near 21N64W to the
northeast coast of the Dominican Republic near 19N69W. This is
generating isolated showers along the north coast of Hispaniola
this morning. Afternoon showers will develop over the island
today and Wednesday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean extends over the west
Atlantic west of 65W. At the surface is a weak cold front that
extends through 32N75W then across Florida near West Palm Beach.
A deep layered low is over the west-central Atlantic with the
upper low near 30N55W and the surface 1012 mb low centered near
29N55W. An occluded front extends from the surface low north to
beyond 32N54W with a cold front extending south through 32N51W
along 28N50W to 24N52W where it dissipates to 23N56W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are being generated by the
upper low north of 28N between 51W-53W. An upper ridge to the
east is providing diffluence aloft to generate scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms within 150 nm of a
line from 18N54W 26N48W to beyond 32N48W. A surface trough
extends from the Atlantic near 21N64W to the northeast coast of
the Dominican Republic near 19N69W. A broad surface ridge covers
the east Atlantic anchored by a 1035 mb high about 700 nm
northeast of the Azores. An upper low over the far east Atlantic
centered near 28N20W is generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from 26N-30N between 17W-21W including
the western most Canary Islands. The west Atlantic cold front
will continue southeast reaching from 32N68W to the southeast
Bahamas by Wednesday morning then from Bermuda to the Turks and
Caicos by Thursday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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