[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041715
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 PM EDT FRI NOV 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from the African
coast near 10N14W to 08N23W to 05N28W to 08N46W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N-13N between
12W-27W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-14N between
42W-54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
Upper level ridging prevails over much of the Gulf basin this
afternoon with dry and stable NW flow noted on water vapor imagery
E of 92W and increased moisture and cloudiness within SW flow
aloft W of 92W. Beneath the southerly flow...a weak surface
trough axis is analyzed along the Mexico coast from 18N94W to
22N98W. Convergent easterly winds on the east side of the trough
axis along with the diffluence aloft is generating possible
isolated showers S of 26N W of 91W. Otherwise...the remainder of
the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge centered
across the north-central Gulf near 29N90W. Gentle to moderate
N-NE winds are expected to continue through Friday night late...as
an approaching cold front...currently analyzed across the SE CONUS
emerges off the NE Gulf coast tonight. Strong NE to E winds are
forecast in wake of the front through the early part of Saturday.
Thereafter for the remainder of the weekend...gentle to moderate
E-SE winds are expected as high pressure anchors across the Ohio
and Tennessee River valleys.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Northwesterly flow aloft prevails across much of the Caribbean
basin this afternoon W of 68W as a broad middle to upper level
trough dips southward from the SW North Atlc region over the NE
Caribbean. Water vapor imagery indicates drier air aloft over
the Greater Antilles and central Caribbean waters...however
moisture remains across the far western portion of the basin along
with portions of Central America. A surface trough is analyzed
along the Central America coast from NE Nicaragua to NE Costa Rica
providing focus for widely scattered showers and isolated tstms
from 10N-16N between 80W-85W. Much of this convection is enhanced
due to the a favorable upper level diffluent environment. Farther
east...with the upper level troughing in place...frontal troughing
has fractured with some energy extending NE of the Leeward Islands
into the central Atlc...and a portion associated with the surface
trough extending from the Mona Passage near 18N68W to 12N72W. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms are occurring mainly E of the trough
axis across the eastern Caribbean...including Puerto Rico...the
US/UK Virgin Islands and the Lesser Antilles. The trough is
forecast to lift N of the basin and weaken by Saturday. Lastly...
overall moderate to occasional fresh winds outside of strong
convection are expected through the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently an upper level trough axis extends along 69W from over
the SW North Atlc to a broad base over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
Overall fair weather persists for much of the island this
afternoon...however a few isolated showers and tstms are
occurring across the NE adjacent Atlc coastal waters from 19N-21N
between 66W-70W. The upper level troughing is expected to lift N
by Saturday and weaken with generally gentle to moderate NE winds
expected for the duration of the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough is progressing eastward off the
eastern US seaboard supporting a cold front extending from
offshore of the Carolinas to coastal Georgia and across the far
southern SE CONUS. A surface trough is analyzed to the S-SE of the
front moving into the discussion area from 29N73W to 21N72W.
Possible isolated showers are noted N of 22N W of 66W ahead of the
approaching front...with the front generating widely scattered
showers and possible isolated tstms N of 30N between 70W-78W. The
front is expected to sweep eastward through Saturday night with
fresh to strong NE winds forecast in wake of the front as high
pressure builds in across the SE and Mid-Atlc U.S. Farther
east...a vigorous middle to upper level shortwave trough and
associated low is centered over the central Atlc near 36N46W. The
upper level feature supports a partially occluded storm-force 994
mb low centered near 35N45W. The cold front extends into the
discussion area near 32N42W to 29N41W to 23N43W then becomes a
surface trough to 19N50W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are
occurring within 240 nm E of the front. Otherwise...the NE
portion of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a
dissipating cold front extending from 32N12W SW to 24N20W.
Possible isolated showers are N of 27N between 10W-22W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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