[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT FRI NOV 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 9N13W to 8N15W where the ITCZ begins and continues
along 7N27W 6N33W to 8N55W. Scattered strong convection is from
4N-10N between 18W-21W. Clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection cover the remainder of the area from
$N-11N between 15W-27W, and from 3N-6N between 33W-40W. Clusters
of scattered moderate convection are from 7N-12N between 46W-
57W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A shortwave upper trough extends from the northwest Atlantic to
over northeast Florida supporting a cold front that extends at
04/2100 UTC from the west Atlantic across northeast Florida near
Saint Augustine into the Gulf along 30N87W to inland over
Louisiana near New Orleans continuing west to over east Texas.
An upper ridge anchored over Guatemala extends an upper ridge
axis north across the Gulf to over the central CONUS near the
Louisiana/Texas border. Isolated showers are possible across the
west Gulf south of 28N west of 93W, leaving the remainder of the
Gulf with fair weather this evening. A surface ridge extends
from Texas and northeast Mexico east over the Gulf anchored by a
1030 mb high over the Oklahoma panhandle with a weak 1025 mb
high over east Mexico. The cold front will reach the Straits of
Florida late Saturday before dissipating Sunday. Strong high
pressure will build behind the front Sunday night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and anchored over
Guatemala covers the west Caribbean west of 80W. A broad upper
trough over the west Atlantic dips south over the remainder of
the Caribbean with the axis along 70W. An inverted surface
trough extends from the south coast of the Dominican Republic
near 18N69W along 15N72W to off the coast of Colombia near
12N73W. An upper ridge to the east of the Lesser Antilles is
providing difflunce aloft to generate scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 14N east of 67W to
over the Lesser Antilles to Puerto Rico. The surface trough will
persist through the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

The surface trough just south of the island coupled with the
easterly trade winds are generating isolated showers and
thunderstorms are across the south portion of the island this
evening. This activity will continue through the weekend,
especially over the Dominican Republic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A shortwave upper trough extends from the northeast Atlantic to
over northeast Florida supporting a cold front that at 04/2100
UTC extends through 32N74W to across Florida neat Saint
Augustine with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
within 60/75 nm east of the front to 79W. A broad upper trough
covers the remainder of the west Atlantic west of 57W. An
inverted surface trough extends from 28N72W to the Turks and
Caicos near 22N73W. Scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms are from 23N-28N east of the surface trough to
66W. A deep layered low is over the north-central Atlantic with
an upper trough extending to 30N between 40W-51W supporting a
cold front that at 04/1800 UTC extends into the central Atlantic
near 32N40W continuing along 25N41W to 21N45W where it becomes a
surface trough to 18N49W. Isolated to scattered showers are
within 75 nm east of the front. An upper trough over the far
northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front north of the area
to 31N11W where it becomes stationary to the Canary Islands then
dissipates to 26N17W. A surface trough trails the front
extending through 32N17W to 27N21W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are within 30 nm east of the front with
scattered showers north of 29N west of the surface trough to
23W. The west Atlantic cold front will reach from Bermuda to the
northern Bahamas Saturday, from 32N57W 29N65W to the central
Bahamas Sunday, and from 32N56W 24N65W to the southern Bahamas
Monday. Strong high pressure will build behind the front over
the weekend. The central Atlantic front will stall along 37W
Saturday night before dissipating Sunday.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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