[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041104
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 AM EDT FRI NOV 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...Special Features...

A surface trough extends from a 996 mb low pressure center that
is near 33N46W, to 27N46W, 21N50W and 18N60. The trough continues
into the Caribbean Sea near 16N66W, curving 11N71W at the coast of
Venezuela just to the NE of Lake Maracaibo of NW Venezuela. Gale-
force winds are present in the Atlantic Ocean, within 180 nm of
the low pressure center, for the next few hours or so. Expect sea
heights to range from 12 feet to 18 feet. Please read the High
Seas Forecast...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details.

A deep layer trough passes through 32N56W to 28N52W 23N60W 21N66W,
across Puerto Rico, to coastal Venezuela along 66W/67W. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery to the
north and northwest of the trough, in the Atlantic Ocean, and in
the Caribbean Sea across Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
Convective precipitation: in the Atlantic Ocean: isolated
moderate to locally strong from 20N northward between 37W and
47W; isolated moderate from 14N to 22N between 53W and 63W. in
the Caribbean Sea: numerous strong off the coast of Venezuela
within a 30 nm radius of 12N66W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong from 14N to 20N between 63W and NW Cuba.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal borders of Senegal and
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 11N18W. The ITCZ continues from
11N18W to 09N25W 09N35W 08N39W 09N52W. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the area that is from 30W eastward, across the area of
the ITCZ. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 05N to
10N between 10W and 28W, in coastal sections of Guinea-Bissau, and
within 90 nm on either side of 05N47W 08N47W 10N51W 10N56W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 13N southward from 60W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge is along 92W/93W. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow and high level moisture span the Gulf of Mexico.

Broad surface low pressure trough extends from the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico northwestward to the coastal border of Texas
and Mexico. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 28N
southward from 90W westward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico
everywhere away from the surface low pressure that is in the SW
corner of the area...from the middle Texas Gulf coast to the
Yucatan Peninsula. A dissipating cold front is moving toward
the Texas Gulf coast at this moment.

A surface ridge passes through the deep south of Texas, to a 1021
mb Mexico coastal plains high pressure center that is near 22N99W,
to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force
winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern
Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the Eastern
Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and
the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/
AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Edinburg. MVFR in Alice. IFR in Victoria. MVFR
in Bay City. LIFR in Angleton/Lake Jackson. LIFR in Beaumont/
Port Arthur and Huntsville. LOUISIANA: LIFR in parts of the Lake
Charles metropolitan area. IFR in New Iberia and Patterson. LIFR
in Slidell. Earlier IFR conditions have improved at the NAS New
Orleans during the last observation. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in
Pascagoula. ALABAMA: IFR in Gulf Shores. FLORIDA: light rain in
Milton. MVFR in Crestview, in the NW parts of the Panama City
metropolitan area, and in Perry. LIFR in Cross City and
Brooksville. IFR at the Tampa Executive Airport. Earlier IFR
conditions in Punta Gorda have improved during the last
observation.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from Venezuela and Colombia to the Greater Antilles
between 65W and the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. This drier
air is associated with the upper level trough that extends from
the central Atlantic Ocean to Puerto Rico.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean
Sea, in the SW corner of the area from 76W westward, away from
the comparatively drier air and the Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean
Sea trough that is described in the Special Feature section.

A surface trough is along 81W/82W, from 17N to a 1009 mb low
pressure center that is near 11N. Convective precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong off the coast of NE Nicaragua/
Eastern Honduras. Isolated moderate elsewhere around Central
America from 20N southward from 80W westward, including in the
coastal plains of Honduras and Nicaragua.

The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
04/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.52 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is moving across the area.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery across the entire area. Convective precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong off the coast of the Dominican
Republic within a 30 nm radius of 19N69W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong elsewhere from 17N to 20N between the Mona Passage
and 74W, in Hispaniola and in its coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo:
thunder and rain. Punta Cana: thunder and rain ended one hour ago
at 04/0900 UTC for the moment. VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus
clouds. Santiago: IFR/fog. Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 mb shows that N wind flow will move across the
area for the next 24 hours. Day two will consist of SW wind flow
with a trough to the west of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 mb shows that the wind flow will be from the E at the
start of the forecast period. It will shift and be from the SE,
and then from the S, during the rest of the 48-hour forecast
period.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Large-scale upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area
from 10N northward between 30W and 60W, to the east of the deep
layer Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough. Upper level
N and NW wind flow and comparatively drier air in subsidence
cover the Atlantic Ocean to the west and northwest of the deep
layer trough and surface features, and gale-force winds, that are
the subjects of the Special Features section.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow and a trough are between Africa
and 30W. The trough is along 32N24W 02N27W. The trough cuts across
the area of the ITCZ. A dissipating cold front passes through
32N12W, to the Canary Islands, to 23N20W and 22N28W. Convective
precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers are within 150 nm on either side of 17N26W 22N17W
beyond 32N09W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward
from 59W westward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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