[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT FRI NOV 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...Special Features...

A cold front passes through 32N48W to 25N53W. A surface trough
extends from a 1000 mb low pressure center that is near 29N47W, to
24N47W and 20N52W. Gale-force winds are present in the Atlantic
Ocean, within 180 nm of the low pressure center. Expect sea
heights to range from 12 feet to 18 feet. The gale-force wind
continues in the forecast for the next 12 hours or so. Please
read the High Seas Forecast... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more
details.

A deep layer trough passes through 32N56W to 28N52W 23N60W 21N66W,
across Puerto Rico, to coastal Venezuela along 66W/67W. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery to the
north and northwest of the trough, in the Atlantic Ocean, and in
the Caribbean Sea across Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
Convective precipitation: in the Atlantic Ocean: isolated
moderate to locally strong from 20N northward between 38W and
47W, and from 16N to 20N between 55W and 61W. in the Caribbean
Sea: from 10N to 20N between 61W and 73W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal waters of Guinea-Bissau
near 12N16W to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to 08N24W
10N35W 08N47W 10N53W 09N57W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers the area that is from 30W eastward, across the area of the
ITCZ. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 05N to 09N
between 10W and 26W. Isolated moderate to locally strong from 12N
southward between 26W and 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge is along 92W/93W. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow and high level moisture span the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough extends from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico
northwestward to the coastal border of Texas and Mexico.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 26N southward
from 90W westward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico
everywhere away from the surface trough that is in the SW corner
of the area...from 23N northward. A cold front is moving through
central Texas at this moment.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from Venezuela and Colombia to the Greater Antilles
between 65W and the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. This drier
air is associated with the upper level trough that extends from
the central Atlantic Ocean to Puerto Rico.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean
Sea, in the SW corner of the area from 76W westward, away from
the comparatively drier air and the Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean
Sea trough that is described in the Special Feature section.

A surface trough is along 17N80W, to 14N82W. to a 1009 mb low
pressure center that is near 12N82W. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate in the Caribbean Sea from 10N to 16N between
79W and the coastal plains of Honduras and Nicaragua along 83W/
84W.

The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
04/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.52 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is moving across the area.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery across the entire area. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong from 17N to 20N between the Mona
Passage and 73w, in Hispaniola and in its coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo:
MVFR ceiling. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus
clouds. Santiago: rain. Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 mb shows that N wind flow will move across the
area for the next 24 hours. Day two will consist of SW wind flow
with a trough to the west of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 mb shows that the wind flow will be from the E at the
start of the forecast period. It will shift and be from the SE,
and then from the S, during the rest of the 48-hour forecast
period.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Large-scale upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area
from 10N northward between 30W and 60W, to the east of the deep
layer Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough. Upper level
northerly wind flow and comparatively drier air in subsidence
cover the Atlantic Ocean to the west and northwest of the deep
layer trough and surface features, and gale-force winds, that
are the subjects of the Special Features section.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow and a trough are between Africa
and 30W. The trough is along 32N24W 02N27W. The trough cuts across
the area of the ITCZ. A dissipating cold front passes through
32N13W, to the Canary Islands, to 24N20W and 23N28W. Convective
precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers are from 15N northward to the east of the line that
runs from 32N18W 23N29W 15N30W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward
from 57W westward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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