[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021717
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
117 PM EDT WED NOV 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 mb low is centered near 20N57W and remains supported aloft
by a middle to upper level trough with axis extending from 31N60W
to a broad base over the NE Caribbean Sea near 16N69W. Global
model guidance indicates the low is expected to move NE and
strengthen during the next 24 to 36 hours across the central Atlc.
With strengthening forecast...near gale to gale force conditions
in the vicinity of the low are expected to materialize by 03/0000
UTC as the low centers at that time near 24N53W. See latest NWS
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from the African
coast near 10N15W to 10N26W to 05N36W to 06N43W. Widely scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 01N-07N between
03W-08W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N-12N
between 15W-29W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
Upper level ridging prevails over much of the Gulf basin this
afternoon with dry and stable NW flow noted on water vapor imagery
E of 87W and relatively moist and marginally unstable air within
SW flow aloft W of 87W. Beneath the southerly flow...a surface
trough is analyzed across the SW Gulf waters from 19N93W to
22N98W. Convergent easterly winds on the east side of the trough
axis along with the diffluence aloft is generating scattered
showers and isolated strong tstms from 18N-25N between 90W-96W.
Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of
surface ridging anchored by a 1028 mb high centered across South
Carolina. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are expected to continue
through Thursday. By Thursday...the ridging to the N shifts
eastward into the SW North Atlc waters and a cold front is
forecast to impact the northern waters Friday and Friday night
with strong NE winds expected in wake of the front through early
Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Northwesterly flow aloft prevails across much of the Caribbean
basin this afternoon between an upper level anticyclone centered
near 19N86W and an upper level trough with axis extending from
30N60W to a broad base over the eastern Caribbean near 16N70W.
Water vapor imagery indicates drier air aloft has filter in over
the Greater Antilles and north-central Caribbean waters during the
past 24 hours...however moisture associated with the upper level
ridging along with a surface trough analyzed along the Central
America coast from Belize to NE Nicaragua...is providing focus for
scattered showers and isolated strong tstms from 15N-20N between
81W-89W. Much of this convection is enhanced due to the favorable
upper level diffluent environment. Farther east...with the upper
level troughing in place...a frontal trough extends SW from the
Special Feature 1008 mb low centered near 20N57W into a 1009 mb
low centered S of Puerto Rico near 16N67W then westward to 15N75W.
Scattered showers and isolated strong tstms are occurring mainly
along and SE of the boundary generally E of a line from 18N65W to
15N73W to 12N73W. Lastly...with the troughing and broad area of
lower pressure influencing the basin...trades continues to be
disrupted with overall light to gentle variable winds outside of
strong convection. Exceptions are fresh to occasional strong NE
winds funneling through the Windward and Mona Passages...as well
as the lee of Cuba and SE Hispaniola. These conditions are
expected to persist through early Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently NW flow and very dry and and stable conditions aloft
prevail over the island this afternoon. Clear skies and fair
conditions have filtered in across the island and adjacent
coastal waters during the past 24 hours. Surface high pressure
anchored over the Carolinas is providing fresh to occasional
strong NE winds this afternoon into the evening hours. This
overall synoptic pattern is expected through Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Much of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface
ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high centered across the Carolinas
this afternoon. Primarily moderate to occasional fresh NE to E
winds are prevailing across the region generally N of 20N W of
60W. This overall synoptic pattern is supported aloft by a middle
to upper level ridge extending over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
N-NE over the SE CONUS. Farther east...an upper level trough
extends over the central Atlc with axis extending from 32N59W SW
to base over the eastern Caribbean Sea near 16N70W. The troughing
supports the developing Special Features low mentioned above.
Scattered showers and scattered strong tstms are occurring within
300 nm either side of a line from 28N49W to 16N62W. Otherwise...the
remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface
ridge with axis extending from near 32N32W to 25N28W to 17N32W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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