[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022342
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
742 PM EDT WED NOV 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 mb surface low is centered near 23N54W and remains
supported by a mid to upper-level trough with axis extending from
31N62W to its base over the northeast Caribbean near 15N71W.
Global model guidance forecasts this low to move northeast while
strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours across the central
Atlantic. With this, near gale to gale force conditions are
expected in the vicinity of the low starting at around 03/0000
UTC when the low is expected to be centered near 24N53W. Please
refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough remains over Africa not reaching the Atlantic
waters. The ITCZ extends from 11N16W to 07N30W to 07N43W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 18W-31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1026 mb
high centered over northeast Georgia near 34N83W. To the
southwest, a surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche
from 23N97W to 20N94W. A convergent easterly wind on the southern
portion of the trough axis along with diffluence aloft are
supporting scattered showers south of 22N between 91W-95W. Similar
activity is observed across the northwest Gulf from 25N-28N
between 91W-95W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate easterly
winds across the basin. These winds will continue through the next
couple of days with slightly higher winds, fresh to occasional
strong, across the SE Gulf waters and Florida Straits.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moisture associated with an upper-level ridge along with a
surface trough analyzed near the Central America coast from
16N87W to 15N83W is providing focus for isolated moderate
convection south of 20N west of 82W. A diffluent flow aloft
combined with a 1008 mb surface low centered near 15N68W and a
surface trough that extends from 15N74W to the low to 18N63W are
supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from
12N-16N and east of 70W. This activity is affecting the Lesser
Antilles. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades across
the basin south of 16N while moderate to fresh northerly winds
prevail north of 16N and west of 70W. Expect during the next
24-48 hours for the surface low south of the Mona Passage to move
southwest while weakening. Convection will continue over the
Lesser Antilles as the upper-level support shift east. Fresh to
occasional strong northeast winds will be funneling through the
Windward and Mona Passages as well as the lee of Cuba and
southeast Hispaniola through Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island and adjacent coastal
waters at this time. The surface high pressure anchored over the
southeast CONUS is providing fresh to occasional strong northeast
winds over the area. This synoptic pattern will prevail through
the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends across the west Atlantic anchored by a
1026 mb high centered over Georgia near 34N83W. Moderate to
occasional fresh northeast winds are prevailing across the region
generally north of 20N and west of 60W. To the east, an upper-
level trough extends over the central Atlantic with axis
from 31N62W to its base over the northeast Caribbean near 15N71W.
This trough supports the Special Features low/surface trough described
above. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring within
300 nm either side of these features between 44W-59W. The remainder
of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge with axis
extending from near 31N31W to 20N30W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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