[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021113
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
713 AM EDT WED NOV 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

The 24-hour forecast consists of GALE-force winds forecast in
the Atlantic Ocean. A surface trough will have the position from
31N49W to a 1007 mb low pressure center near 25N51W, and the
trough continuing to 18N62W. Expect southerly gale-force winds
within 150 nm to the east of the 1007 mb low center, and sea
heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet. Please read the High Seas
Forecast...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal waters of Senegal near
14N18W. The ITCZ is along 02N30W 03N39W. One surface trough is
along 18W/20W from 03N to 08N. A second surface trough is along
29W/30W from 07N southward. An upper level trough cuts through the
area of the ITCZ and the surface troughs. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 12N southward from 54W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge is along 87W/88W. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery to the east of the
line that runs from the NE Yucatan Peninsula to coastal
Mississippi.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
from 27N southward from 90W westward.

A surface ridge passes through the southern Mississippi, SE
Louisiana, to the middle Texas Gulf coast. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico everywhere away
from the surface trough that is in the SW corner of the area.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  none.

MVFR: KGUL, KVBS, KGHB, and KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Hebbronville, Falfurrias, at the NAS Kingsville.
Light rain is being reported in Rockport. LIFR in Conroe and
Huntsville. LOUISIANA: VFR/no ceilings. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in
parts of Hattiesburg. LIFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: VFR/no
ceilings. FLORIDA: MVFR at the NAS Pensacola. IFR in Crestview
and in parts of the Panama City metropolitan area. LIFR in Perry
and in Brooksville. MVFR at the Tampa Executive Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from 16N northward between Puerto Rico and NW Cuba. This
drier air is associated with the upper level trough that extends
from the central Atlantic Ocean to Hispaniola.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean
Sea.

An east-to-west oriented surface trough is from 16N to 17N from
78W westward to Belize. Convective precipitation: scattered strong
in the NW corner of the area, between Honduras, Cuba, and the
Yucatan Peninsula/Belize. Isolated moderate to locally strong from
13N to 17N between 70W and 80W.

The monsoon trough is within 60 nm on either side of 10N between
northern Colombia and NW Costa Rica. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 12N southward from 73W westward.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
28/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.24 in
Guadeloupe, 0.16 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper level trough is in the Mona Passage. Upper level
northerly wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery
across the entire area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona:
VFR/no ceilings. Santo Domingo: rainshowers. La Romana: light
rain. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago and Puerto Plata:
VFR/no ceilings.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that a trough will linger
in the Mona Passage. Expect NW wind flow for the next 48 hours.
Hispaniola will be on the western side of the trough. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that N wind flow will move across
the area for during the next 48 hours. A ridge will be to the west
of Hispaniola, and a trough will be to the east of Hispaniola.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow will
move across the area during the next 2 days. A ridge will be to
the west of Hispaniola, and a trough will be to the east of
Hispaniola.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from the central Atlantic Ocean to
the Mona Passage. A surface trough extends from a 1009 mb low
pressure center that is in the central Atlantic Ocean near 32N50W,
to a 1008 mb low pressure center that is just to the southwest of
Puerto Rico. A cold front is about 440 nm to the northwest of
surface trough. A surface trough continues from the end of the
cold front, near 26N72W, to NE Florida. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 20N to 30N
between 30W and 40W, and in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic
Ocean from 13N to 26N between 50W and 70W. High level clouds also
cover the area from 14N to 30N between 40W and 70W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow and a trough are between Africa
and 30W. The trough eventually extends from 10N30W toward the
equator along 36W. It is possible that convective precipitation
that is related to this trough also is in the area of the ITCZ
and two surface troughs.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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