[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142330
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NEAR GALE TO GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA OF
AGADIR TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 04N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 02N38W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ MAINLY W OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NW GULF WATERS NEAR 27N92W.
WITH THIS...A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
ACROSS THE BASIN...AS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 28N WITH NO CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS
TO MOVE E ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
SUPPORTING CONVECTION. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DISSIPATE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN
WITH AXIS ALONG 83W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS E OF THIS AXIS
WHICH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY BETWEEN
69W AND 82W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF E CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
HISPANIOLA. THE COMBINATION OF THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE BASIN MAINLY S OF 12N BETWEEN 73 AND 84W AFFECTING COSTA
RICA...PANAMA...COLOMBIA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE ISLAND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PREVAILS TO THE W. EXPECT
FOR SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO OCCUR ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 28N80W TO 32N74W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS RELATED TO THIS FRONT AT THIS TIME. TO THE SE...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N75W TO 30N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THIS TROUGH. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED
NEAR 34N47W. EXPECT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND THEN
DISSIPATE. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E
ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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