[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE FORECAST UNTIL 16/0000 UTC...GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR...AGADIR. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE 24 HOURS
THAT FOLLOW THE INITIAL FORECAST PERIOD...THAT ENDS AT 16/0000
UTC IS...THREAT OF NORTH OR NORTHEAST NEAR GALE OR GALE
IN...AGADIR.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 07N20W AND 04N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
04N26W TO 04N33W 02N38W 02N44W...AND THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 09W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 08N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W...FROM
TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS JUST BEFORE ENTERING THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL WATERS.

A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N92W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARD THE
U.S.A. COASTAL WATERS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM FLORIDA TO THE
CAROLINAS.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

MVFR CONDITIONS...KVBS.

VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN MCALLEN. EARLIER RAIN AND THUNDER IN THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS HAVE ENDED FOR THE MOMENT. MVFR IN FALFURRIAS
AND ROCKPORT. LIGHT RAIN IN GALVESTON AND BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR.
LIGHT RAIN FROM THE HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT TO
HUNTSVILLE. LOUISIANA...LIGHT RAIN IN THE LAKE CHARLES
METROPOLITAN AREA. FROM MISSISSIPPI TO FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N73W...TO
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N86W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
LINGERING RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 67W AND 80W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...FROM
84W IN NICARAGUA EASTWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
15/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.06 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW COVERS
HISPANIOLA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
LINGERING RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 67W AND 80W.
THE AREA THAT IS COVERED BY THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION INCLUDES...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...AT 15/0000
UTC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 5000
FEET...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA AT 15/0000
UTC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...VFR. SANTO DOMINGO...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. LA ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...VFR. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR.
SANTIAGO...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 7000 FEET...VFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
COVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE WIND FLOW WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY RIGHT AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL BE EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT THE WIND
FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...SWITCHING TO NORTHEAST...AND
THEN EASTERLY...DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE IS IN THE
VICINITY.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N73W...TO
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N86W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 29N79W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 32N67W TO 25N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 71W. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W 29N67W
27N72W.

A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N32W
TO 26N35W AND 24N45W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO
31N39W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THE TROUGH WESTWARD TO 60N FROM 20N
NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM
08N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N67W 25N75W SURFACE
TROUGH. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N38W. A 1021 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 36N21W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N45W...TO 30N55W 26N65W...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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