[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NEAR GALE TO GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA OF
AGADIR TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE... BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 05N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 02N32W TO 03N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 00W-15W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 30N81W TO 28N86W. THE FRONT IS VOID OF
PRECIPITATION. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N92W. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER S TEXAS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 98W-101W. OUTSIDE OF THE
GULF COLD FRONT...10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH SEAS 1-2 FT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 82W.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER S TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER N FLORIDA TO MOVE E AND DISSIPATE.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE TEXAS FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA
TO E TEXAS ALONG 30N WITH CONVECTION OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 09N75W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...
PANAMA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN 74W-82W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E
CUBA. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST
WINDS S OF 17N AND E OF 78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW IS
NOTED. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR INCREASED CONVECTION
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC FROM 31N78W TO N
FLORIDA AT 30N81W. THE FRONT IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. A 1026 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N50W. THE TAIL END OF A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N41W
TO 28N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A
1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N24W. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 25N BETWEEN 67W-71W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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