[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141022
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NEAR GALE TO GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA OF
AGADIR AND CANARIAS DURING TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING
LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA
II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 04N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02N32W TO 02N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE E CONUS WITH
BASE REACHING S TO GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W W TO THE COAST OF
SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE LACKING CONVECTION BUT WITH MODERATE PROBABILITIES
OF DENSE FOG IN ITS VICINITY AS INDICATED BY THE GOES IFR
PRODUCT. THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH IS FROM 22N93W TO 18N94W. A
1015 MB HIGH STALLS IN THE SE GULF NEAR 25N83W...HOWEVER IT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT
GENTLE VARIABLE WIND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW BASIN WHERE
MODERATE NE FLOW IS PRESENT. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT
SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER BASIN-WIDE AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL
STALL AGAIN TODAY WHILE IT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATE
SUNDAY...LEAVING SURFACE HIGH PRES AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER
THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ADVECTS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN REGIONS OF THE BASIN WHILE ALOFT SW TO W FLOW ADVECTS
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SAME REGIONS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AND NE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WELL AS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
COSTA RICA COASTLINE WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NW BASIN W OF
82W. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS S TO THE N-NE BASIN
AND TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT WITH A LOW PRES CENTER OVER NW
COLOMBIA TO GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS S OF 17N BETWEEN
66W AND 77W. LIGHT AND MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO PULSE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
ATLANTIC HIGH BECOMES STRONGER.

HISPANIOLA...

MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ADVECTS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN REGIONS OF THE BASIN WHILE ALOFT SW TO W FLOW ADVECTS
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SAME REGIONS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT
WATERS...ESPECIALLY NE OF THE ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BEING ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE REGION N OF THE TROPICAL
ATLC BEING ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH PRES CENTERS N OF THE AREA. WITH
THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE FLOW...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE BASIN WHERE N TO NE
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS RESULT FROM A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN THAT
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net