[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140605 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NEAR GALE TO GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA OF
AGADIR AND CANARIAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE
METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE
FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND
LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE
WEBSITE...WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N35W TO 04N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE E CONUS WITH
BASE REACHING S TO GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE COASTS OF
ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI TO SE LOUISIANA. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LACKING CONVECTION BUT WITH
MODERATE PROBABILITIES OF DENSE FOG IN ITS VICINITY AS INDICATED
BY THE GOES IFR PRODUCT. A 1018 MB HIGH STALLS IN THE SE GULF
NEAR 25N85W...HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT GENTLE VARIABLE WIND WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SW BASIN WHERE MODERATE NE FLOW IS PRESENT. DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER BASIN-WIDE AT
THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STALL WHILE IT WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATE SUNDAY...LEAVING SURFACE HIGH PRES AS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ADVECTS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN REGIONS OF THE BASIN WHILE ALOFT SW TO W FLOW ADVECTS
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SAME REGIONS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AND NE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WELL AS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
COSTA RICA COASTLINE WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NW BASIN N OF
18N W OF 82W. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS S TO THE N-
NE BASIN AND TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT WITH A LOW PRES CENTER OVER
NW COLOMBIA TO GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS S OF 15N BETWEEN
66W AND 76W. MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TO PULSE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH
BECOMES STRONGER.

HISPANIOLA...

MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ADVECTS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN REGIONS OF THE BASIN WHILE ALOFT SW TO W FLOW ADVECTS
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SAME REGIONS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AND ADJACENT WATERS...ESPECIALLY NE OF THE ISLAND. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEING ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE REGION N OF THE TROPICAL
ATLC BEING ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH PRES CENTERS N OF THE AREA. WITH
THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE FLOW...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE BASIN WHERE N TO NE
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS RESULT FROM A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN THAT
REGION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
ENTER THE SW N ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 65W WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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