[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE FORECAST THAT IS VALID UNTIL 09/1200
UTC CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST FOR THE
SECTION THAT IS CALLED...AGADIR.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 05N15W AND 04N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
04N21W TO 04N30W 03N36W AND 02N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 49W AND
53W...NEAR THE COASTS AND IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF BRAZIL AND
FRENCH GUIANA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 62W AND 90W...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 96W/97W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 14N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 90W AND 110W.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH...AND COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...SPAN THE REST OF THE AREA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPAN
THE AREA. A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N88W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG AND KATP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN ROCKPORT. ELSEWHERE IN TEXAS...AND FROM
LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND 90W IN
GENERAL. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
AREA.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
25N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 17N74W
AND 13N77W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IT ENDS NEAR 17N72W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 16N72W 10N76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
21N65W...WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...18N68W 16N69W 14N70W
13N72W. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 21N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 2.22 IN BERMUDA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
08/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA IS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IS JUST A BIT TO
THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO
25N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 17N74W
AND 13N77W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IT ENDS NEAR 17N72W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 16N72W 10N76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
21N65W...WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...18N68W 16N69W 14N70W
13N72W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...LIGHT RAIN. PUNTA CANA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A
CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...MVFR.
SANTIAGO...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000
FEET...VFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH
A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ALMOST ALL OF DAY ONE. EXPECT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY ONE.
EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE START OF DAY
TWO. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY...AND THEN VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION. A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF DAY
TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL
CONSIST OF SOUTHWEST-TO-SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT EASTERLY
WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N11W TO 31N17W...BEYOND 32N24W.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FORECAST FOR THE METEO-FRANCE AREAS
OF AGADIR AND CASABLANCA...ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO
26N30W 26N18W...BEYOND 32N04W. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N13W...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...23N24W 20N39W 15N50W 08N58W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N11W-32N24W COLD FRONT...
AND THE 32N63W-20N68W COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A
1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N47W...TO 26N42W...
TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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