[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE FORECAST THAT IS VALID UNTIL 09/1200
UTC CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST FOR THE
SECTION THAT IS CALLED...AGADIR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA AND THEN INTO
THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W...CONTINUING TO 05N16W TO
05N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N20W AND THEN EXTENDS ALONG
05N30W 04N40W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 10W AND
27W AND WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH IN THE NE
GULF NEAR 28N86W...EXTENDING N TO THE SE CONUS AND E TO THE SW N
ATLC WATERS. THE RIDGE PROVIDES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN
WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS AND MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW W OF
90W. EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE GULF WHERE MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE EPAC WATERS AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS...DRY AIR DOMINATES AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND
MIDDLE LEVELS...THUS SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...HOWEVER WINDS IN THE WESTERN BASIN WILL INCREASE AS LOW
PRES BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALONG MEXICO...THUS
INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WITH BASE EXTENDING S
TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT
PASS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CONTINUING SW
OVER ITS ADJACENT WATERS NEAR 17N71W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 15N76W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N65W...ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO
TO 17N66W TO 15N70W TO 12N71W. MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND TSTMS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC BY SE FLOW ALONG WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN PANAMA AND ADJACENT WATERS AND ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SE MODERATE WINDS COVER THE BASIN E OF
70W WHILE A RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC PROVIDE LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHERLIES W OF 70W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT
AND THE RIDGE SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO COMPLETELY STALL OVER THE CARIBBEAN LATER
TODAY...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY WHILE IT WEAKENS TO DISSIPATE
TUE.

HISPANIOLA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
19N68W TO 18N69W THEN SW OVER SOUTHERN WATERS TO 16N71W WHERE IT
BECOMES DISSIPATING STATIONARY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUE
WHILE IT WEAKENS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S
TO A BASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N62W TO 22N66W TO THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N68W. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE
FRONT. THE REMAINDER BASIN W AND E OF THE FRONT IS DOMINATED BY
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER. A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG S FLOW WITHIN 200
NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. OTHERWISE...A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE FAR NE ATLC FROM 30N13W TO 30N24W WITH NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A
STATIONARY FRONT LATER TODAY AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

NR
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