[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE FORECAST THAT IS VALID UNTIL 09/0000
UTC CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST FOR THE
SECTION THAT IS CALLED...AGADIR.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 05N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N18W TO
04N24W 04N33W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W...NEAR THE COAST OF
BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 62W AND 90W...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 98W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 14N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 90W AND 110W.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH...AND COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...SPAN THE REST OF THE AREA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPAN
THE AREA. A 1-17 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N89W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

MVFR CONDITIONS...KATP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND 90W IN
GENERAL. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
AREA.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 25N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA. THE FRONT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IN
CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...AND IT CONTINUES FROM 17N74W TO 10N81W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N67W 24N64W
27N63W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 67W.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
08/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 2.22 IN
BERMUDA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
08/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA IS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IS JUST A BIT TO
THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA.

A COLD FRONT CUTS ACROSS HISPANIOLA ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST LINE...FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BEYOND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF HAITI.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N70W 15N72W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
19.5N68W 15N71W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW TO
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS
AT 5000 FEET...VFR...AT 07/2300 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR...AT 08/0000 UTC. SANTO
DOMINGO...THUNDER AND RAIN. LA ROMANA...THUNDER AND RAIN. THE
RAIN HAS BEEN HEAVY AT TIMES. PUNTA CANA...THUNDER AND LIGHT
RAIN. SANTIAGO...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE
BASE IS AT 8000 FEET...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH
A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ALMOST ALL OF DAY ONE. EXPECT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY ONE.
EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE START OF DAY
TWO. THE WIND FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHERLY...THEN VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION. A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF DAY
TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL
CONSIST OF SOUTHWEST-TO-SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT EASTERLY
WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 32N20W. THE FRONT CONTINUES
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEYOND 32N20W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING
FORECAST FOR THE METEO-FRANCE AREAS OF AGADIR AND CASABLANCA...
ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 28N30W 29N14W...
BEYOND 32N07W. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N13W...TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS...23N24W 20N39W 15N50W 08N58W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N14W-32N20W COLD FRONT...
AND THE 32N64W-20N69W COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A
1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N46W...TO 27N39W
23N32W...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 15N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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