[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AREAS OF AGADIR AND
CASABLANCA WHICH IS N OF 30N E OF 13W. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-
FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING
LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA
II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE SECTIONS OF AGADIR AND CASABLANCA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W ALONG 6N17W TO 5N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N29W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W TO
42W WHERE IT DIPS S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE ITCZ TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 33W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 16W-21W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-4N E OF 5W ACROSS THE
PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO
TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES ALONG 97W GIVING THE GULF NW
FLOW ALOFT. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF E OF
91W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB
HIGH ALONG THE SE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W. THIS IS GIVING
THE GULF CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT E THROUGH MON ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE W GULF. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES AND
THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL OCCASIONALLY INCREASE SE FLOW TO
STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH IN
THE W ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT TO 20N71W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 18N74W TO
THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 9N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 17N
INCLUDING MOST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE FRONT S OF 12N TO OVER PANAMA. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ARE NW OF THE FRONT GIVING THE AREA CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING.
DRY AIR AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF FRONT GIVING THE SE CARIBBEAN CLEAR
SKIES AS WELL. STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM THE
SW TO NE THROUGH EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING E-SE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA TONIGHT THROUGH MON.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS MOST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS EVENING DUE TO A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE W ATLC TO 20N71W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 18N74W. THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE S OF THE ISLAND BUT WILL BE DRAGGED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY SUN BY THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A RE-DEVELOPED
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA ALONG 26N67W TO 20N71W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT CROSSES HISPANIOLA INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 210 NM E OF FRONT. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TRAILS
THE ABOVE FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N68W 26N71W ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS TO 22N75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 35N47W. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE PORTION
S OF 25N BECOMING STATIONARY FROM 25N65W TO NE HISPANIOLA SUN.
ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN
TO DRIFT W AS A TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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