[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120533
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across western Africa with axis from
15N10W to 04N10W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave coincides with
weak troughing at 700 mb and low-level moisture in its
surroundings as noted on SSMI composite TPW imagery. Scattered
light to moderate convection prevails to the west of the wave
from 11N-16N between 11W-18W.

A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 09N35W to 00N38W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave has
low amplitude and is embedded in a low to moderate moist
environment. NO significant convection is observed within this
wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the western tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 15N57W to 04N61W, moving W at 15 kt. A broad
inverted V pattern is depicted in Visible/IR imagery, and a
moist environment is indicated by SSMI composite TPW imagery.
Scattered moderate convection prevails along the southern
portion of the wave affecting Guyana and Venezuela. Isolated
showers are north of 10N between 56W-63W.

A tropical wave is moving over the Yucatan Peninsula with axis
extending from 18N90W into the EPAC near 10N90W, moving W at 15
kt. The combination of this wave with an upper-level low is
supporting scattered moderate convection from 08N-18N between
87W-92W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to
04N38W. The ITCZ extends from 04N38W to the coast of South
America near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-
08N between 22W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb surface high centered over the western Atlantic
extends its ridge west across the Gulf waters. With this, a
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow dominates the basin as
noted in scatterometer data. A Surface trough developed over the
northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula and it is moving west
across the Bay of Campeche with isolated showers. Expect during
the next 24 hours for a surface high to develop over the western
portion of the basin. Little change is expected elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave with considerable convection is moving west over
Central America. Please see the section above for details.
With this feature and the support of an upper-level low
developing north of Honduras, scattered moderate convection
prevails across Central America from the Yucatan peninsula to
Nicaragua. Isolated convection transported by the moderate to
fresh trades prevails across the remainder of the basin. An area
of stronger winds is depicted in scatterometer data south of
15N between 70W-77W. Expect over the next 24 hours for Central
America tropical wave to move west into the EPAC with
convection. An increase of tropical moisture is expected over
the eastern Caribbean with the approach of the next tropical
wave.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Afternoon
showers and thunderstorms are expected within the next 24 hours
due to low-level moisture transported by the trades and daytime
heating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 mb surface high is centered over the western Atlantic
near 30N75W. A surface trough extends across eastern Florida
near 27N80W into the adjacent water of Bahamas near 24N70W. A
stationary front then extends from 24N70W to 31N52W. Isolated
convection is observed within 100 nm on either side of these
boundaries. A broad surface ridge prevails across the remainder
of the basin anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 32N32W.
Two tropical waves were analyzed across the basin. Please see
the section above for details. Expect in 24 hours for the waves
to continue moving west. Surface ridging will dominate the basin.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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