[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112344
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across western Africa with axis along
08W south of 15N, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave coincides with
weak troughing at 700 mb and low level moisture in its
surroundings as noted on SSMI composite TPW imagery. No
convection is noted at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis
near 34W from 01N to 09N, moving W at 20 kt. The wave has low
amplitude and is embedded in a low to moderate moist
environment. Isolated showers are within 120 nm either side of
the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the western tropical Atlantic with axis
near 58W from 04N to 15N, moving W at 15 kt. A moist environment
from the surface to 850 mb is indicated by SSMI composite TPW
imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-15N between
55W-63W.

A tropical wave is over Central America along 87W from 09N to
18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 09N-18N between 83W-90W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
07N23W to 05N33W. The ITCZ extends from 04N35W to the coast of
South America near 01N50W. Beside the convection associated with
the tropical wave. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
inland over Africa from 10N-14N between 10W-15W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N-09N between
21W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high is centered over the western Atlantic near
32N74W. A ridge axis extends west to eastern Texas near 30N94W
producing mostly 5-10 kt SE surface flow over the Gulf of
Mexico. A surface trough extends south Florida at 27N80W to the
E Gulf of Mexico at 27N85W. Clusters of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are south of 28N east of 86W. Elsewhere,
scattered moderate to strong convection is over the Yucatan
Peninsula and southern Mexico along the coast of the Bay of
Campeche. In the upper levels...a ridge is over the Gulf with
axis along 88W. Expect in 24 hours for a small surface high to
develop over the north central Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave with considerable convection is over the SW
Caribbean and Central America. See above. 10-25 kt tradewinds
are over the remainder of the Caribbean with strongest winds
along the coast of north Colombia. Scattered moderate convection
is over central and eastern Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola.
Elsewhere, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over
the Windward Islands S of 15N and E of 64W due to an approaching
tropical wave. In the upper levels, an upper level low is
centered over the Gulf of Honduras near 17N88W enhancing the
convection over the western Caribbean. Further east, strong
subsidence is over the central and eastern Caribbean east of
78W. Expect over the next 24 hours for Central America tropical
wave to move west with convection. Also expect an increase of
tropical moisture into the eastern Caribbean with the approach
of the next tropical wave.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered moderate convection is over the higher
elevations of Hispaniola. Expect similar convection Sunday
afternoon and evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 mb high is centered over the western Atlantic near 32N74W.
A 1015 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 32N52W.
A stationary front extends from the low to 28N60W to 24N70W. A
surface trough continues from 24N60W to south Florida at 27N80W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 90 nm of
the front and trough. A 1025 mb high is centered over the
eastern Atlantic near 32N33W. Of note in the upper levels, an
upper level trough is over the western Atlantic north of 25N
between 50W-74W supporting the surface features.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
FORMOSA
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