[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121051
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across western Africa with axis from
15N11W to 05N12W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with
weak troughing at 700 mb and low-level moisture in its
surroundings as noted on SSMI composite TPW imagery. Isolated
convection prevails to the west of the wave from 09N-14N between
12W-17W.

A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 08N37W to 01N39W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave has
low amplitude and is embedded in a low to moderate moist
environment. No significant convection is observed within this
wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the western tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 15N58W to 05N64W, moving W at 15 kt. A broad
inverted V pattern is depicted in Visible/IR imagery, and a
moist environment is indicated by SSMI composite TPW imagery.
Scattered moderate convection prevails along the southern
portion of the wave affecting Venezuela. Isolated showers are
south of 14N between 59W-66W.

A tropical wave is moving over the southern portion of the
Yucatan Peninsula with axis extending from 16N91W into the EPAC
near 09N91W, moving W at 15 kt. The combination of this wave
with an upper-level low is supporting scattered moderate
convection from 10N-17N between 88W-98W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 19N16W to
06N35W. The ITCZ extends west of a tropical wave from 06N42W to
the coast of South America near 04N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 04N-07N between 26W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb surface high centered over the western Atlantic
extends combines with another 1020 mb surface high developing in
the eastern Gulf near 25N83W. With these, surface ridging
dominates the basin with a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
noted in scatterometer data. A surface trough is over the Bay of
Campeche extending from 23N91W to 20N93W. Expect during the next
24 hours for the surface ridge to prevail over the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave with considerable convection is moving west over
Central America. Please see the section above for details.
With this feature and the support of an upper-level low
developing north of Honduras, scattered moderate convection
prevails across Central America from the Yucatan peninsula to
Nicaragua. Isolated convection transported by the moderate to
fresh trades prevails across the remainder of the basin. An area
of stronger winds is depicted in scatterometer data south of
15N between 70W-77W. Expect over the next 24 hours for Central
America tropical wave to move west into the EPAC with
convection. An increase of tropical moisture is expected over
the eastern Caribbean with the approach of the next tropical
wave.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Afternoon
showers and thunderstorms are expected within the next 24 hours
due to low-level moisture transported by the trades and daytime
heating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 mb surface high is centered over the western Atlantic
near 30N76W. A surface trough extends across eastern Florida
near 27N80W into the adjacent water of Bahamas near 24N72W. A
stationary front then extends from 24N72W to 31N51W. Isolated
convection is observed within 100 nm on either side of these
boundaries. A broad surface ridge prevails across the remainder
of the basin anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 34N27W.
Two tropical waves were analyzed across the basin. Please see
the section above for details. Expect in 24 hours for the waves
to continue moving west. Surface ridging will dominate the basin.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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