[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
804 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 02N35W to 11N34W, moving west at 15 kt over the
past 24 hours. This wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough
based on GFS model streamlines and a moderate moist environment
from the surface to 850 mb as depicted by CIRA Layer Precipitable
Water imagery. In the northern wave environment Saharan dry air
and dust as well as strong deep layer wind shear hinder
convection. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 120 nm either
side of the wave axis S of 7N.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 19N70W to 09N70W, moving west at 10 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough based on GFS model
streamlines and a broad surge of moisture from the surface to 850
mb as depicted by CIRA Layer Precipitable Water imagery. This
moisture along with a diffluent environment aloft support
scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms over northern Haiti and
western Dominican Republic. Similar convection is S of 13N between
68W and 75W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 09N13W to 05N22W where the ITCZ begins and
continues to 05N34W. The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave
near 05N38W to 05N48W to 06N56W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ W of 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface low pressure continues to dominate the basin. Aloft, a
trough over the eastern CONUS with base near central Georgia
supports a weak cold front across the Florida Panhandle becoming
stationary near 30N86W to southern Louisiana. A surface trough,
remnants of former post-tropical cyclone Colin extends across
south Florida to 26N81W to 24N86W. Another surface trough extends
from the NW Caribbean to the SE basin near 23N83W. Abundant
moisture in the region along with diffluent flow being generated
by the upper trough and a ridge centered near 20N85W support
scattered showers S of 27N E of 86W, including the Yucatan channel
and the straits of Florida. These troughs are expected to move
east-northeast the next two days and are likely to generate heavy
rains over the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula and SE Gulf
waters. A surface trough is inland the Yucatan Peninsula and
supports heavy showers within 90 nm off the northern peninsula.
The latest scatterometer data and surface observations show a 101
mb low close to the central Gulf near 25N91W, which is forecast to
dissipate by Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, gentle variable winds
are basin-wide.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level ridge continues anchored over the NW Caribbean
near 20N85W collocated over a surface trough that extends from
23N83W to the western Gulf of Honduras. A divergent environment
aloft generated by the ridge and an upper trough N of the area support
scattered to isolated showers W of 81W, including the Yucatan
Channel, western and central Cuba. A tropical wave is in the
central Caribbean bringing showers to that region. See the
tropical waves section for details. Behind the wave axis, moderate
to fresh trades dominate while ahead of the wave gentle E to SE
flow is present. The trough in the west Caribbean will drift
north of the area by Thu night, however convection will continue
in the NW basin during that time. The tropical wave will move to
the western basin Thu near sunrise. Fresh to strong winds are
forecast to develop in the south-central Caribbean later tonight
and will continue through the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 19N70W to 09N70W. Moisture associated with the wave along
with a diffluent environment aloft support scattered heavy showers
and thunderstorms over northern Haiti and western Dominican
Republic. Showers are forecast to continue through Thu morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 30N73W to 27N80W and along with a
diffluent environment aloft support scattered heavy showers and
thunderstorms S of 29N W of 75W. Similar convection is between
Turks and Caicos and Hispaniola. To the east, a pair of 1022 mb
surface highs are centered near 25N55W and 29N48W. A weak 1016 mb
surface low is over the eastern portion of the basin near 29N32W
with a cold front extending from the low to 21N42W. Isolated
convection is likely in the vicinity of these features. A
tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic. Please refer
to the section above for details. Expect during the next 24 hours
for the surface trough in the west Atlantic to merge with a cold
front and then move east with convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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